2024Q3's performance increased significantly, with gross margin rising year-on-year, maintaining a “buy” rating of 2024Q1-3, benefiting from the gradual recovery of the downstream market, significant increase in demand in emerging application areas, accelerated removal of company inventory, and steady revenue growth, achieving revenue of 1.356 billion yuan, +22.77% year over year; benefiting from the company's keen grasp of market conditions, positive response to changes in customer demand, and early increase in production schedules. Net profit to mother increased significantly, achieving net profit to mother of 0.332 billion yuan, +54.59% year over year; achieved deduction Net profit not attributable to mother was 0.326 billion yuan, +61.10%; achieved gross profit margin of 36.58%, +6.17pcts year on year; 2024Q3 achieved revenue of 0.482 billion yuan in a single quarter, +39.45% year over month, -3.91% month on month; realized net profit to mother 0.115 billion yuan, +70.27% year on year, -2.57% month on month; realized net profit without return to mother 0.111 billion yuan, +76% year on month; achieved Gross profit margin 38.04%, +7.91 pcts year over year, +1.51 pcts month over month. The recovery in downstream demand is in line with expectations. We maintain the company's net profit forecast for 2024/2025/2026 at 0.459/0.589/0.752 billion yuan, and the current stock price corresponds to PE of 31.9/24.9/19.5 times. We are optimistic about the growth momentum brought by automotive and other fields, and maintain a “buy” rating.
Product+market dual strength. The automotive+AI server sector brings growth momentum. Looking at products, (1) the third-generation SGT-MOSFET platform has been mass-produced and vehicle certification has been completed, and the number of products has been expanded to more than 10 models; (2) the fourth-generation 800V deep groove SJ MOS platform has entered mass production, and the products are mainly used in micro inverters and other markets; (3) the 650V and 1200V products of the seventh-generation micro-groove high power density IGBT platform have completed mass production of 40A to 200A products and passed representative photovoltaics , energy storage customer testing, entering the batch stage; (1) in the field of automotive electronics, the introduction of more vehicle regulation products was achieved, and the scale of cooperation with BYD was further expanded. 2024H1 increased the number of products supplied by BYD by more than 50% year-on-year, and various models were used in important three-electric power modules such as OBC and DC conversion, which are expected to inject growth momentum into the company; (2) in the field of photovoltaic energy storage, the company is actively developing photovoltaic companies and promoting seventh-generation IGBT products. Vigorously promote SGT products to form an increase in orders; (3) In the AI server field, on the one hand, the company's products continue to work hard in the traditional server field and are expected to gain more market share in the future. On the other hand, the company's products develop products around the relevant needs of AI computing power servers and actively develop downstream customers. Related products have been used by leading overseas customers in the GPU field and achieved mass sales, and future revenue is expected to grow rapidly.
Risk warning: downstream demand falls short of expectations; customer introduction falls short of expectations; technology research and development falls short of expectations.
