眼科受制带量采购，Q3 公司收入增速下滑。公司三季度收入增速有所承压，判断系眼科业务在带量采购政策下，产品价格受到一定压制，公司市场地位依旧稳固，随眼科产品矩阵的持续完善，市占率有望进一步提升。Q3 医美玻尿酸业务依然维持稳健增长，尤其“海魅”保持高速增长，不断彰显优质产品力和品牌力。今年7 月获批的第四代产品“海魅.月白”开创性的采用氨基酸作为交联剂，不仅强化公司在国产高端玻尿酸赛道的领导地位，同时可与前三代玻尿酸形成功能差异化、价格差异化的产品定位，满足多元化的医美需求，推动公司医美业务稳步增长。Incidents:
Haohai Biotech released its 2024 three-quarter report. In the first three quarters, the company achieved revenue of 2.075 billion yuan/ +4.69%, net profit due to mother 0.341 billion/ +4.31%, after deducting net profit of 0.321 billion yuan/ +5.53%. Single Q3 achieved revenue of 0.67 billion yuan/ +0.22%, net profit attributable to mother 0.106 billion yuan/ -13.13%, net profit not attributable to mother 0.091 billion yuan/ -22.02%.
Comment:
Ophthalmology was subject to volume procurement, and Q3 company revenue growth declined. The company's revenue growth rate in the third quarter was under pressure. Judging from the ophthalmology business, product prices were suppressed to a certain extent, and the company's market position is still stable. With the continuous improvement of the ophthalmology product matrix, the market share is expected to increase further. Q3 The medical and aesthetic hyaluronic acid business continues to grow steadily. In particular, “Sea Charm” has maintained rapid growth, continuously demonstrating high-quality products and brand power. The fourth-generation product “Haimei Moon White”, which was approved in July of this year, pioneered the use of amino acids as crosslinkers, which not only strengthens the company's leading position in the domestic high-end hyaluronic acid circuit, but can also differentiate its functional and price-differentiated product positioning from the previous three generations of hyaluronic acid forms, meet diverse medical and aesthetic needs, and promote the steady growth of the company's medical and aesthetic business.
Quality and efficiency are continuously improved, and the cost ratio is stable. The company's expense ratio for the first three quarters was 51.75% /-0.99pct, of which sales expenses ratio was 28.65% /-2.92pct, management expenses ratio 15.68% /-0.14pct, R&D expenses rate 9.07% %/+1.29pct, and financial expenses ratio -1.64% /+0.78pct. Single Q3 cost rate 53.53% /+0.43pct, with sales expense ratio 28.23% /-2.38pct, management expense ratio 17.41% /+0.26pct, R&D expense ratio 9.36% /+1.47pct, financial expense ratio -1.46% /+1.08pct. The company's expenses are properly controlled, R&D expenses have increased slightly, sales expenses have declined, and overall expenses have remained stable.
Gross margin has declined slightly, and medical and aesthetic medicine is expected to drive a recovery in profitability. In the first three quarters, the company's gross profit margin was 70.42% /-1.23pct, net profit margin was 16.43% /-0.06pct, and non-return net profit margin was 15.49% /+0.12pct. Single Q3 gross profit margin 70.21% /-2.63pct, net profit margin 15.75% /-2.42pct, net profit margin 13.59%/-3.87pct after deducting non-return net profit margin. The judgment on the decline in gross margin is that the gross margin of ophthalmology products is under pressure under volume collection. The company's share of high-margin medical and aesthetic products is gradually increasing, which is expected to drive a steady recovery in the overall profit level.
Investment advice: The company's ophthalmology business is temporarily under pressure. As the product matrix is further improved, the market share may increase year by year. Hyaluronic acid products continue to grow rapidly. In addition, radio frequency and laser product lines have been improved, botulinum toxin is progressing steadily, and the medical and aesthetic sector is expected to continue to improve. Taking into account the pressure on the consumer market and adjusting the profit forecast, revenue for 2024-2026 is expected to be 2.908 billion/3.375 billion/3.914 billion, respectively, and net profit to mother 0.467 billion/0.559 billion/0.664 billion, respectively. The corresponding PE for Hong Kong stocks is 14 times/12 times/10 times, respectively. Maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Market competition intensifies; new product promotion falls short of expectations; progress of products under development falls short of expectations; performance forecasts and valuation judgments fall short of expectations.
