Source: Wall Street See

The US economic data has mixed results. Although the US Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index for October exceeded expectations and reached a nine-month high, the US JOLTS job vacancy for September fell significantly below expectations, hitting a more than three-year low, with an increase in layoffs, indicating weakness in the labor market. Analysts suggest that the decline in JOLTS is due to short-term factors such as Hurricane Helen.

"Trump trade" initially led to an increase in US bond yields, but later, due to the JOLTS data and a strong auction of the seven-year US bonds, US bond yields rose sharply and then fell. The market currently anticipates a nearly 100% likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November.

At the Saudi Future Investment Initiative Summit, also known as the "Desert Davos," most executives from global financial giants agree that the Federal Reserve may only cut interest rates once by the end of this year, but uncertainties surrounding the US election and rate cut bets continue to boost gold prices to new highs.

Investors are currently awaiting a series of economic data, including Wednesday's ADP employment report, Thursday's US September Core PCE Index inflation, and Friday's non-farm payrolls report, to further assess the Federal Reserve's policy stance. The Federal Reserve will announce its next interest rate decision on November 7th.

According to CCTV News, the EU has decided to impose a final anti-subsidy tax on Chinese electric vehicles for a period of five years, causing electric vehicles and European car stocks to plummet. Tesla briefly dropped by 2.7%, NIO fell by over 3%, Xpeng fell by over 3%, XPeng and Volkswagen's US stocks fell by over 4%.

On Tuesday, October 29th, the US stock market sees mixed results as investors sell off small-cap and blue-chip stocks but buy into tech and chip stocks. The Nasdaq leads the gains, rising over 1% and hitting another historical high. Telecommunications and technology sectors lead the gains, with other sectors declining. Utilities and energy sectors see the largest declines. Market focus is on earnings reports, with Google's Q3 cloud revenue exceeding expectations and rising over 5% after hours, while AMD's performance guidance falls short of expectations and drops over 7% after hours. China concept stocks experience a general retreat, with solar stocks, which surged yesterday, seeing double-digit declines, and emerging electric vehicle companies facing widespread declines.

• Only the Dow falls among the three major US indices. The S&P 500 index rises by 9.40 points, or 0.16%, to 5832.92 points. The Dow, closely related to the economic cycle, falls by 154.52 points, or 0.36%, to 42233.05 points. The Nasdaq, dominated by tech stocks, rises by 145.56 points, or 0.78%, to 18712.75 points. The Nasdaq 100 index rises by 0.98%. The Nasdaq Technology Market Cap Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of Nasdaq 100 tech component stocks, rises by 1.73%. The Russell 2000 small-cap stock index, more sensitive to the economic cycle, falls by 0.27%. The VIX fear index drops by 1.92% to 19.42.

• 11 sectors of the S&P 500 index see more declines than gains. The telecommunications sector rises by 1.56%, the information technology/tech sector rises by 1.12%, the industrial sector falls by 0.14%, the consumer discretionary sector falls by 0.20%, the healthcare sector falls by 0.29%, the financial sector falls by 0.61%, the materials sector falls by 0.67%, the real estate sector falls by 0.94%, the staples sector falls by 0.96%, the energy sector falls by 1.44%, and the utilities sector falls by 2.13%.

• Most US industry ETFs close lower. The semiconductor ETF rises by over 2%, while the technology industry ETF, internet stock index ETF, and global tech stock ETF each rise by at least 1%. On the other hand, the utilities ETF falls by over 2%, the energy industry ETF falls by over 1.5%, the global aviation industry ETF and daily consumer goods ETF each fall by around 1%, the financial industry ETF, regional banks ETF, and consumer discretionary ETF all fall by at least 0.5%.

• "Tech Seven Sisters" all rise except Tesla. Apple rose by 0.12%. According to Taiwan Economic Daily, industry sources said that Apple has invested in the development of next-generation M5 chips, to be produced using TSMC's 3nm process. It is expected that the AI performance and computing power of the upcoming M5 chip from Apple will be stronger, triggering a new wave of upgrades. According to Bloomberg citing insiders, India's iPhone export amount increased by one-third in the six months ending in September compared to the same period last year. Google Class A rose by 1.78%, cloud revenue in the third quarter exceeded expectations, and the stock price rose by over 5% after hours. Nvidia rose by 0.52%, Amazon rose by 1.3%, Microsoft rose by 1.26%, "Metaverse" Meta rose by 2.62%, while Tesla fell by 1.14%.

• Chip stocks collectively rose. Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by 2.31%. Industry ETF SOXX rose by 2.46%; Nvidia's double long ETF rose by 1%. AMD rose by 3.96%, but its post-market performance guidance was below market expectations, indicating a slowdown in AI growth, causing the stock price to drop by over 7% at one point. KLA Corp rose by 3.24%. ON Semiconductor rose by 3.41%, Arm Holdings rose by 4.77%, Qualcomm rose by 2.19%. ASML ADR rose by 1.15%. Broadcom rose by 4.2%, with reports that Broadcom and OpenAI are developing an AI inference chip. TSMC ADR rose by 1.16%, Micron Technology rose by 1.68%, Applied Materials rose by 2.58%, while Intel fell by 0.09%.

• AI concept stocks saw mixed results. BullFrog AI fell by 0.82%, Serve Robotics fell by 1.02%, Palantir fell by 0.09%, C3.ai rose by 0.04%, Snowflake rose by 0.9%, Super Micro Computer rose by 2.93%, SoundHound AI, an AI voice company owned by Nvidia, fell by 1.8%, BigBear.ai rose by 2.31%, CrowdStrike rose by 3.19%, Oracle rose by 0.59%, Dell Technologies rose by 0.8%.

• Chinese concept stocks generally declined. Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 1.44%. In ETFs, China Technology Index ETF (CQQQ) fell by 0.41%. China Internet Index ETF (KWEB) fell by 0.82%. FTSE China 3x Bull ETF (YINN) fell by 1.95%. FTSE China 3x Bear ETF (YANG) rose by 2.03%. "Chinese Dragon" ETF RONDHL CHINA ETF (DRAG) rose by 0.15%.

• Among the popular Chinese concept stocks, Canadian Solar fell by 9.6%, JinkoSolar fell by 12.78%, Daqo New Energy fell by 22.75%, Fangdd Network fell by 1.69%, Li Auto Inc. fell by 2.44%, Zeekr fell by 8.8%, Xpeng fell by 4.37%, Nio Inc. fell by 3.61%, New Oriental fell by 2.93%, Trip.com fell by 0.28%, Bilibili fell by 1.35%, JD.com fell by 1.2%, Alibaba fell by 0.1%, PDD Holdings fell by 0.43%, Vipshop fell by 0.88%, Tiger Brokers fell by 4.02%, while Canaan rose by 22.6%, Douyu rose by 4.6%, Kanzhun rose by 0.8%, Atour Lifestyle Holdings rose by 0.5%, Miniso rose by 0.21%, Meituan ADR rose by 0.31%, Baidu rose by 0.49%, Netease rose by 1.53%.

• Other key stocks: (1) HSBC Holdings exceeded revenue and Q3 profit expectations, announced a $3 billion share buyback plan, rose over 4.6%, and closed up 2.81%. (2) Adidas' Q3 performance exceeded expectations, double-digit revenue growth, gross margin increased to 51.3%, raised full-year performance expectations, stock price closed up 3.59%. (3) British oil giant BP ADR fell by 5.44%, European stocks fell by 4.97%, third-quarter profit decreased by 30% year-on-year, hitting a near four-year low. (4) Ford fell by 8.44% due to cost issues and hurricane disruptions, lowering full-year EBIT expectations. (5) Trump Media Technology Group (DJT) rose by 8.76% and rose multiple times during regular trading hours.Circuit breaker(6) German semiconductor company Infineon announced the launch of the world's thinnest silicon power wafer, falling nearly 1.6% before closing up 0.39%. (7) Pfizer fell by 1.39%, with revenue in the third quarter exceeding estimates, and raised the full-year adjusted earnings per share forecast. (8) McDonald's rose nearly 2% before closing down by 0.6%, with comparable sales in the third quarter below expectations. McDonald's stated that the E. coli infection incidents at multiple locations in the US seemed to be under control. (9) Electronic payment platform PayPal fell nearly 8.1% before closing down 3.96%, with an adjusted earnings per share of $1.20 in the third quarter. (10) Snap's third-quarter performance exceeded expectations, rising over 10% in after-hours trading. (11) Reddit unexpectedly achieved net income in the third quarter, with fourth-quarter revenue and EBITDA guidance exceeding expectations. The stock price rose by over 24% after hours. (12) The AI boom brought good news, with ASM International's third-quarter orders exceeding expectations, and ADR closing up by 6.16%. (13) The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) found quality issues at the active ingredient factory of a weight loss drug, causing Novo-Nordisk to fall by nearly 1.1% during trading before closing down by 0.34%, hovering near a nine-month low.

European stock markets opened high but closed lower, with travel sector stocks leading the decline in the European sector. Deutsche Lufthansa AG dropped by 4.7% due to a decline in Q3 operating profit, while HSBC surged by 4% following better-than-expected profits. Quality issues in the active ingredient factory of a weight-loss drug caused Novo Nordisk's Danish stock price to drop by over 0.2%.

• The European STOXX 600 index fell by 0.57%, closing at 517.99 points. The Eurozone STOXX 50 index fell by 0.40%. The FTSE All-World 300 index fell by 0.57%.

• Most sectors fell, with banks and mining stocks still slightly rising, while tourism stocks led the decline with a 1.62% drop. Among the components, the internal combustion engine power station supplier Voxelan Company fell by 13.52%, with orders of 1.8 billion euros below expectations. Deutsche Lufthansa AG's third-quarter operating profit fell by 9%, and its stock price dropped by 4.7%. Swiss pharmaceutical company Novartis reported a 10% increase in third-quarter revenue, raised performance expectations, but the stock price still fell by 4.7%.

• Germany's DAX 30 index fell by 0.27%. France's CAC 40 index fell by 0.61%. The Netherlands' AEX index fell by 0.24%. Italy's FTSE MIB index fell by 0.26%. The UK's FTSE 100 index fell by 0.80%. Spain's IBEX 35 index fell by 0.91%.

U.S. 10-year Treasury yield hit a three-month high during the session, while the 2-year Treasury yield rose before falling, ultimately dropping more than 4 basis points, ending a four-day rising trend. Eurozone bond prices declined, with French, Italian, and Spanish sovereign bond yields all rising by about 7 basis points.

• In the closing hours, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 2.80 basis points to 4.2541%, having previously risen to 4.3365% at 23:18 Beijing time, approaching the highs of July 3 at 4.4415% and May 1 at 4.6924%. The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield declined by 4.14 basis points to 4.0962%, having peaked at 4.1743% at 21:31, nearing the highs of August 1 at 4.2964% and the peak of 5.0434% on April 30.

• On the news front, Barclays strategist Joseph Abate predicts that the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction (QT) process may continue until March 2025. Financial industry leaders believe the Fed will not cut interest rates twice this year. The CEO of Goldman Sachs emphasized the difficulty of setting monetary policy before policies are clear, while the CEO of BlackRock pointed out that global inflation is high, expecting rates not to be too low. This diverges from traders' predictions of two rate cuts before the end of the year and a year-end rate of 3.5% by 2025.

• In the European bond market, the German 10-year bond yield rose by 5.1 basis points to 2.337% at the close. The 2-year German bond yield increased by 4.2 basis points. The UK's 10-year bond yield rose by 6.1 basis points to 4.315%, while the 2-year UK bond yield increased by 5.1 basis points. The 10-year French bond yield rose by 6.9 basis points, and the 10-year Italian bond yield increased by 7.2 basis points. Prior to the UK Labour government's significant budget announcement, British bond yields rose by over 5 basis points.

• The autumn economic forecast by the German Industry Association shows that the German economy is expected to contract by 0.3% in 2023, followed by a predicted contraction of 0.2% in 2024. The forecast for 2025 suggests continued stagnation, putting Germany at risk of three consecutive years of economic contraction, currently facing a "stubborn structural crisis". However, a German GfK consumer confidence survey indicates that consumer confidence is expected to rise slightly in November.

After hitting a three-month high and then falling back, the US dollar index retreated. The Japanese yen almost broke through the 154 level against the US dollar, touching a three-month low, and fell against the British pound towards the 200 level. Offshore renminbi once fell over 192 points during the session, breaking below 7.16 to a two-month low, while US stocks recovered intraday losses. Bitcoin futures rose by about 4%, briefly exceeding $74,000.

• DXY, the US Dollar Index, fell 0.03% to 104.286 points at the close, showing a trend of rising and falling throughout the day. At 21:05 Beijing time, it had risen to 104.636 points, then approached the daily low of 104.214 points seen at 17:39. The Bloomberg Dollar Index rose 0.09% to 1262.96 points, trading in a range of 1261.25-1265.08 points during the day.

• Non-US currencies: The euro rose 0.04% against the US dollar to 1.0816, having fallen to 1.0769 at 21:03; the British pound rose 0.31% to 1.3010; the US dollar rose 0.23% against the Swiss franc. Among commodity currencies, the Australian dollar fell 0.35% against the US dollar, the New Zealand dollar fell 0.18%, and the US dollar rose 0.18% against the Canadian dollar. The Swedish Krona rose 0.20% against the US dollar, and the Norwegian Krone rose 0.26%.

• Japanese Yen: The Japanese yen fell 0.06% against the US dollar at the close to 153.38 yen, trading in a range of 152.76-153.87 yen during the day. The euro rose 0.06% against the yen to 165.90 yen; the British pound rose 0.34% to 199.548 yen, having risen to 199.715 yen at 02:39, approaching the July 24th peak of 201.185 yen. The market expects the Bank of Japan to keep rates unchanged on Thursday.

• Offshore Renminbi (CNH): The offshore renminbi fell over 192 points at its deepest during the session against the US dollar, breaking below 7.16 to a two-month low, then rose 21 points to 7.1428.

• Cryptocurrencies: The largest market cap leader, Bitcoin futures, rose 3.98% at the close to $73,100.00. At 03:11 Beijing time, it had risen to $74,485.00, and according to Bloomberg data, it was reported at $75,180.00 on June 5th. Spot Bitcoin rose by 6% at one point and surpassed $73,000, nearing the historic high set in March. The second-largest Ethereum futures rose by 4.79% to $2,645.50, having risen to $2,713.00 at 01:03.

Due to the easing of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, oil prices fell for two consecutive days. After WTI crude oil fell more than 6% on Monday and another 0.25% on Tuesday, it lingered at a four-week low. However, WTI oil had previously surged over $1 or 1.7% in pre-market trading, once breaking through $68.

• WTI crude oil futures for December closed down $0.17, a decrease of 0.25%, at $67.21 per barrel. WTI oil rose nearly 1.7% to above $68.50 during European trading, then sharply reversed course, hitting a low of nearly 1% below $66.70 during midday trading.

• Brent crude oil futures for December closed down $0.30, a decrease of 0.42%, at $71.12 per barrel. Brent oil followed a similar trend to WTI oil, rising nearly 1.7% to above $72.60, and hitting a low down nearly 1% to around $70.70.

• On the news front, Goldman Sachs stated that in the short term, oil prices are too cheap compared to the fundamentals. Goldman Sachs expects that due to the replenishment of U.S. strategic petroleum reserves and the demand boost from the aviation industry, oil prices will rise, with Brent prices expected to rebound to $77 per barrel in the fourth quarter, even if there is no oil supply disruption in the Middle East. However, strong U.S. production and factors such as the OPEC+ plan to increase supply could lead to oversupply in the oil market by 2025, causing a decline in oil prices.

• Natural gas: NYMEX November natural gas futures closed up 1.60% at $2.3460 per million British thermal units.

Due to the U.S. presidential election, tension in the Middle East, expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, and various economic data to be released, increased uncertainty has led the market to increase hedging bets. Spot gold rose by about 1.2% to surpass $2770 on Tuesday, reaching a historical high. It has risen more than 34% year-to-date.

• Gold: COMEX December gold futures rose 1.12% to $2786.70 per ounce at the close. Spot gold fell slightly in the early Asian market, dropping to nearly 0.1% to $2740, then continued to rise. By the closing, it rose nearly 1.2% to above $2770, closing up 1.18% at $2774.87 per ounce.

• Silver: COMEX December silver futures rose 1.84% to $34.625 per ounce at the close. Spot silver fell nearly 0.2% to $33.60 in the early Asian market, then continued to rise. By the early U.S. session, it rose nearly 2.6% to above $34.50, closing up 2.32% at $34.4541 per ounce.

• On the news front, Han Tan, Chief Market Analyst at Exinity Group, believes that as long as the uncertainty of the U.S. election continues to affect market sentiment and the Fed's interest rate cut expectations remain unchanged, the gold price may continue to rise and may reach $2800 in the next few days. In addition, the world's second-largest gold consumer, India, actively buys gold to celebrate the Diwali festival despite the high gold prices.

• London industrial metals were mixed: London copper fell $11 to $9530 per ton. COMEX copper futures rose 0.05% to $4.3645 per pound. London aluminum rose $14 to $2659 per ton. London zinc fell $17 to $3122 per ton. London lead fell $26 to $2004 per ton. London nickel fell $142 to $15873 per ton. London tin fell $345 to $31084 per ton. London cobalt remained flat at $24300 per ton.

Editor / jayden