According to a bold prediction by an investment bank, "The price of gold will definitely reach the target of $2800 this week."
As traders await the latest economic data from the usa and with only a week left until the usa election, spot gold rose continuously on Tuesday's usa trading session, breaking through the $2770 mark and creating a new historical high. Spot silver rose over 2% intraday.
The recent intense competition between Harris and Trump has brought uncertainty, highlighting the role of precious metals as safe havens.
Shengbao Bank stated in a report: "Despite the decline in risk premiums elsewhere, gold continued to rise this week, confirming that the market's focus remains on the usa election, especially the prospects of 'Trump 2.0'. This could bring more significant policy disruptions, trade tariffs, and higher geopolitical risks."
In addition, data released on Tuesday showed that the usa September JOLTs job openings recorded 7.443 million, the lowest level since the beginning of 2021, lower than the expected 8 million, with the previous value revised down from 8.04 million to 7.861 million. This data is the latest indication of a weak job market. usa short-term interest rate futures edged up slightly after the usa job openings data was released, as traders increased bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
A series of more significant usa economic data will arrive later this week, including Wednesday's ADP employment data, Thursday's usa personal consumption expenditure, and Friday's employment report.
Given the central bank purchases and the safe-haven demand resulting from geopolitical conflicts, gold has surged by about one-third this year, making it the best-performing year since 1979. The market cap of gold has reached a historical high of $18.4 trillion.
A large amount of funds inflow has become the driving force behind the surge in gold prices. Data shows that last week, gold funds attracted about $3 billion of inflow, marking the second-largest inflow on record, more than three times higher than the recent weeks' average level. At the same time, the percentage of central bank gold reserves in forex reserves has surged to 12.1%, the highest level in over 30 years.
TD Securities commodity strategist Daniel Ghali said, "I believe that the gold price can definitely reach the $2800 target this week. We expect that the U.S. election has actually hindered selling interest, so any catalyst for buying activity may have a greater impact."
Stonex analyst Rhona O'Connell stated in a report, "Gold is still in a buy-on-dips mode, although some potential investors have been waiting for a drop of over $200, it has not materialized, and the gold price is just undergoing a correction. While one of the key factors of geopolitical risk this year is that nearly half of the global population is involved in political elections, uncertainty will not simply disappear at the end of the elections."
From a technical perspective, Fxstreet analysts pointed out that breaking through $2750 in gold prices can be seen as a new trigger for the bulls. Subsequent increases may test the $2770-2775 range, near the resistance of the upward trendline for almost four months. This momentum may even extend further to the psychological level of $2800.
However, on the daily chartRelative Strength Index(RSICurrently on the edge of breaking through the overbought zone, indicating that the bulls need to act cautiously. Therefore, a cautious approach would be to wait for some short-term consolidation or moderate pullback before preparing for any further short-term upward movement.
At the same time, any corrective pullbacks now seem to find some support near the low points of Monday, around $2725, followed by the $2715 area. The latter marks the lower boundary of the previous week's trading range, and a decisive breakthrough of this range may trigger some technical selling. Subsequently, the gold price may weaken further below the $2700 level, move towards the $2675 area, and then reach the level of $2657-2655.Resistance.