农泵短期波动，家用板块有望迎来改善。公司24Q3 实现营业收入4.5 亿元，同比-11.54%，分业务看，我们预计终端需求较弱或导致民用泵板块整体承压；家用泵主要受到欧洲市场去库整理周期的短期冲击，结合海关总署数据Q3 国内热泵出口延续改善趋势，后续有望进入补库增长通道。Incident: 24Q1-Q3 achieved operating income of 1.3 billion yuan, -8.54% year on year; net profit of 0.19 billion yuan, or -22.27% year on year; net profit of non-return to mother 0.15 billion yuan, or -37.90% year on year.
Among them, 24Q3 achieved operating income of 0.45 billion yuan, or -11.54%; net profit to mother of 0.05 billion yuan, or -34.72% year-on-year; net profit after deducting non-return to mother 0.05 billion yuan, or -42.06% YoY.
Comment:
Agricultural pumps fluctuate in the short term, and the household sector is expected to improve. The company achieved revenue of 0.45 billion yuan in 24Q3, or -11.54%. By business, we expect that terminal demand will be weak or cause overall pressure on the civilian pump sector; household pumps will mainly be impacted by the short-term dewarehousing cycle in the European market. Combined with data from the General Administration of Customs Q3, domestic heat pump exports continue to improve, and it is expected to enter the warehouse replenishment growth channel in the future.
Profitability is under pressure in the short term. The company's 24Q3 gross margin was 2.6 pcts to 29.5% year over year. We expect that the gross margin will continue to be under pressure due to factors such as changes in product structure (high-margin energy-saving pumps and heat pump accessories have declined a lot). The company's expenses are relatively rigid, and the overall cost rate is high. The 24Q3 sales/management/R&D/finance expenses ratio was 6.0%/6.2%/5.7%/1.1%, respectively, +1.6/+1.4/+1.0pct. Under the combined influence, the company achieved a net profit margin of 11.8% in 24Q3, -4.2 pcts year-on-year.
Investment advice: Dayuan Pump Industry is a domestic shielded pump faucet. Civilian pumps, household pumps, industrial pumps, and liquid cooling pumps go hand in hand. It has a complete product matrix, leading technical manufacturing, and strong horizontal business expansion capabilities. The estimated net profit for 24-26 was 0.24/0.26/0.31 billion yuan (previous value of 0.29/0.32/0.38 billion yuan, due to pressure on Q3 revenue, the 24-26 revenue forecast was lowered), corresponding to 13.8x/12.6x/10.6x, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Market competition increases risk; risk of fluctuating raw material prices; management risk due to rapid expansion of scale.
