24 年前三季度公司毛利率同比下滑2.55pct 至10.1%，Q3 单季毛利率为11.24%，同比-0.50pct。前三季度期间费用率为3.08%，同比-0.05pct，其中销售、管理、研发、财务费用率分别为0.61%、2.65%、0.27%、-0.46%，同比-0.12pct、-0.10pct、-0.19pct、+0.35pct。资产及信用减值损失为0.49亿，同比增加0.1 亿，主要系应收账款、合同资产较23 年底同比增加3.46、3.69 亿，项目回款后合同资产坏债减值仍有望冲回。综合影响下公司净利率为4.13%，同比-1.78pct，Q3 单季度净利率为4.43%，同比-0.79pct。24年前三季度公司CFO 净额为-5.33 亿，同比多流出2.22 亿，收付现比分别为76.37%、90.15%，同比-5.45pct、-3.74pct。Revenue achieved a relatively rapid growth rate, and profit growth was dragged down by expenses
In the first three quarters of 24, the company achieved revenue of 3.838 billion, +51.52% year-on-year, 0.159 and 0.154 billion yuan, +5.94% and +4.08% year-on-year; Q3 achieved revenue of 1.336 billion yuan, +22.28% year-on-year, and 0.059 and 0.057 billion yuan of net profit to mother and 0.057 billion, +3.87% and +4.14%. Profit growth in the third quarter was slow. The main factors were the decline in gross margin and failure in the cost ratio in the third quarter. Effective dilution and increased credit impairment.
Gross margin declined slightly, and impairment losses increased
In the first three quarters of 24, the company's gross margin fell 2.55 pct year on year to 10.1%. In Q3, the gross margin for the single quarter was 11.24%, -0.50 pct year on year. The cost rate for the first three quarters was 3.08%, -0.05pct year on year, with sales, management, R&D, and finance expenses ratios of 0.61%, 2.65%, 0.27%, and -0.46%, respectively, and -0.12pct, -0.10pct, -0.19pct, and +0.35pct year-on-year. Asset and credit impairment losses were 0.049 billion, up 0.01 billion from year on year. Mainly accounts receivable and contract assets increased 0.346 and 0.369 billion year-on-year compared to the end of 23. Bad debt impairment on contract assets is still expected to be recovered after project repayment. Under the combined influence, the company's net interest rate was 4.13%, -1.78pct year on year, and 4.43% in the Q3 quarter, -0.79pct year on year. The company's net CFO for the first three quarters of 24 was -0.533 billion, an increase of 0.222 billion yuan over the previous year. The current payout ratios were 76.37% and 90.15%, respectively, -5.45 pcts and -3.74 pcts year-on-year.
There are enough orders in hand, and the demand for new display panel construction is increasing
As of June 30, 2024, the company's on-hand orders were 2.251 billion yuan (excluding tax); from July 1 to August 26, an additional order of 1.133 billion yuan (excluding tax) was added, with on-hand orders sufficient to support the growth of performance.
Demand for new display production line construction has increased. On August 29, Vicino disclosed the “Notice on Investing in the 8.6th Generation Flexible Active Matrix Organic Light-emitting Display (AMOLED) Production Line Project”. BOE and Vicino's two leading manufacturers invested about 120 billion, which is expected to drive the clean room construction demand scale of 11.8-17.7 billion. Previously, the company had received a 0.7 billion contract from BOE. We believe that the company's order is expected to fully benefit from the rapid growth of investment in the head panel factory.
Equity incentives consolidate growth momentum and maintain a “buy” rating
Equity incentives are expected to fully motivate employees, and the construction of new display production lines is booming. The company promotes the application of new businesses such as prefabricated modularization, and uses BIM technology to digitize the entire process of clean room system integration, effectively improving the efficiency of clean room integration. Baicheng has accelerated the establishment of a global strategic layout, established subsidiaries in Vietnam, Thailand, etc., and actively laid out the Southeast Asian market. Considering the intensification of downstream competition, we slightly lowered the company's 24-26 forecast to 0.235, 0.29, and 0.36 billion (previous value was 0.27/0.34/0.41 billion yuan), corresponding PE to 25.6, 20.6, and 16.8 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: downstream demand falls short of expectations; industry competition intensifies; project implementation & repayment fall short of expectations.
