Hot news

• Before the opening on Tuesday, the three major futures indices fell in general.

• Growth tech stocks fluctuated before the market open, with Google up 0.3%, AMD up 0.55%, nvidia and apple down nearly 0.5%.

• Most China concept stocks rose before the market open, with NIO and JD.com up over 3%, while the solar sector declined, and Daqo New Energy fell more than 8%.

• In the battle for the European cloud computing market, Microsoft launched a scathing attack on Google: tarnishing Microsoft's reputation and misleading the public.

Microsoft's Deputy General Counsel Lima Ali in $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ article titled 'Google's Shadow Campaigns' on the official website, accusing $Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$ Using unfair means to attack Microsoft. Ali pointed out that Google is organizing the formation of a European cloud computing vendor alliance called the 'Open Cloud Coalition', this organization 'aims to discredit competitors and decision-makers' reputation for Microsoft, and mislead the public'.

This article also points out, $Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$ Still 'directly or indirectly lobbying competition regulators around the world', imposing restrictions on large cloud service providers, especially Microsoft and Amazon AWS. Although Google's datacenter operating capacity reached 3,500 megawatts in 2023, surpassing all other cloud service providers, Google is trying to position itself as a non-large or small cloud service provider to circumvent regulations.

• Trump's campaign ignited a surge in enthusiasm, with DJT skyrocketing over 280% since the September low.

On Sunday, Eastern Time, Trump held a high-profile campaign event in Madison Square Garden in New York, once again boosting the market's confidence in Trump's election victory. Trump's rally at Madison Square Garden was extremely popular, not only were all 0.02 million seats filled to capacity, but also a large crowd standing outside the venue - according to Musk, around 0.07 million people showed their support on the streets around the venue. DJT has soared over 280% since the low in September, as of the time of writing. $Trump Media & Technology (DJT.US)$ Up more than 20% pre-market.

• PayPal down more than 2% pre-market, with third-quarter adjusted earnings per share exceeding estimates.

$PayPal (PYPL.US)$ Earnings per share after adjustments for the third quarter were $1.20, compared to $0.98 in the same period last year, with an estimate of $1.07. Net revenue was $7.85 billion, a 5.8% year-on-year increase, with an estimate of $7.88 billion. Payment transaction volume was 6.63 billion, up 5.7% year-on-year, with an estimate of 6.83 billion. After PayPal's financial report was released, the stock fell nearly 8%, as of the time of publication, PayPal was down more than 2% pre-market.

• McDonald's third-quarter revenue was $6.87 billion, down more than 2% pre-market.

McDonald's third-quarter revenue was $6.87 billion, estimated at $6.81 billion; third-quarter adjusted earnings per share were $3.23, estimated at $3.20; third-quarter same-store sales declined by 1.5%, estimated to decline by 0.67%. As of the time of publication, McDonald's was down more than 2% pre-market.

• D.R. Horton rose over 3% pre-market, with third-quarter revenue exceeding market expectations.

$Pfizer (PFE.US)$ 美股盘前一度涨超3%。辉瑞公布2024年第三季度财务业绩并上调了对2024年全年收入和调整后稀释每股收益的预测。辉瑞将2024年全年收入预测上调至61-64 billion美元，调整后稀释每股收益预测上调至2.75-2.95美元。辉瑞第三季度营收17.7 billion美元，市场预估15.08 billion美元。

• Intel will lay off employees at its research and development center in Poland.

根据 $Intel (INTC.US)$ 向当地劳工办公室提交的文件，该公司计划在波兰格但斯克研发中心裁员数百人。英特尔驻波兰发言人对此回应称，“按照8月宣布的广泛的节支计划，我们正做出艰难但必要的裁员决定”，但未说明具体裁员人数。该发言人表示：“这是我们面临过的最艰难决定。变革的目的是要建立一个更简单、更具适应性和优化的组织，这也是英特尔长期可持续发展战略的一部分。”英特尔在格但斯克研发园区拥有约2500名员工和1500名分包商员工。

• 霍顿房屋盘前跌超10%，2025年营业收入指引低于预期

$D.R. Horton (DHI.US)$ 2024财年Q4营业收入为10.003 billion美元，去年同期为10.504 billion美元；归属股东净利润为1.283 billion美元，去年同期为1.51 billion美元。因预测2025年营业收入低于预期，霍顿房屋盘前跌超10%。

Global macro

• Temasek's Chief Investment Officer: If Trump wins the election, global economic growth is expected to slow down.

Market news, Temasek's Chief Investment Officer Rohit Sipahimalani stated that if Donald Trump wins, it will lead to a stronger dollar and higher interest rates, which will harm emerging markets. If Kamala Harris is elected, the opposite will happen. He said, 'I believe this is not only detrimental to emerging markets, but also to the global economy and the entire United States, affecting global growth.' Higher tariffs will bring uncertainty, which is absolutely disadvantageous for investments. If Harris becomes president, it will be even more beneficial for emerging markets, due to lower interest rates, a weaker dollar, and less trade tension.

• Report indicates that Trump's tariffs or a net increase of $4.5 trillion, but will increase the tax burden on American residents.

A analysis report released on Monday by the Tax Policy Center in the USA shows that Trump's radical tariff proposal - imposing a 20% tariff on all imported commodities, and a 60% tariff on commodities from china - will bring in a net income of 4.5 trillion USD over the next 10 years. This is roughly enough to cover the costs of extending his expiring 2017 tax cuts, but not enough to fund his other various tax commitments or the cost of eliminating all income taxes as he hopes. Economists expect tariffs to reduce imports and raise prices for USA consumers. The analysis report indicates that by 2025, tariffs will increase the average tax burden of american residents by $2940, with after-tax income decreasing by 2.9%.

• Goldman Sachs CEO: The U.S. economy will achieve a soft landing, and the trading environment is improving.

Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon's latest forecast predicts that the U.S. economy will achieve a soft landing, with positive trading prospects. However, concerns arise from the Middle East conflict, although it has not yet impacted operations. Solomon also emphasized his concerns about other regions in the world, particularly the Middle East region - tensions between Israel and Iran have reached the highest level in decades. Nevertheless, he added that this war 'has not had a significant impact on activities in the region'.

• Is high volatility becoming the norm in the US stock market? The 'fear index' VIX has turned net long for the first time since 2018.

Bloomberg macro strategist Simon White proposed a viewpoint on October 29th that the current US stock market is adapting to an environment where stocks have potential for appreciation and high volatility. The latest holding data shows that current market investors, especially long/short equity funds, hold significant net long positions in the US stock market. This situation coincides with the holding transition of the volatility index (also known as the "fear index" VIX) to a net long position. This is also the first time since 2018 that VIX holdings have shifted to a net long position.

• Nomura warns: The market may be excessively hedging against Trump's trade, potentially leading to a "Harris accident".

Nomura believes that in the event of a 'Harris election deadlock/Congressional division' situation, all types of assets face reversal risks, there may be some upside space for US Treasuries and short-term interest rates, as well as the closing risks of betting on Trump's sweep/'overheated economy'/relaxed regulation theme stocks; under a 'deadlock' scenario with Harris, gold/cryptos trades will be under pressure; if the Democratic Party achieves a 'blue sweep' in Congress, the stock market may fall by 7% to 10% in the next one to three months.

Bilibili rose more than 3% pre-market trading and was upgraded to "buy" by UBS, which raised its EPS estimate per share.

Reminder for US Macro Events

(All in Peking Time)

21:00 USA August FHFA House Price Index

21:00 USA S&P/CS20 Major City House Price Index YoY

10:00 PM USA October Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index

10:00 PM USA Releases September JOLTs Job Openings

Editor/Rocky