According to the Intelligent Finance and Economics APP, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing issued a document stating that in the first three quarters, the total social logistics amount in China was 258.2 trillion yuan. Calculated at comparable prices, it increased by 5.6% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points compared to the first half of the year. Among these, the growth rates for the first quarter, second quarter, and third quarter were 5.9%, 5.7%, and 5.3% respectively, all maintaining a fast level of above 5%. Comparing with GDP, the logistics demand synchronizes with GDP changes, with growth rates in each quarter higher than GDP growth, indicating that the current logistics physical volume is relatively active, effectively supporting economic transformation and upgrading. Since September, with the accelerated launch of a package of incremental policies, the positive changes in logistics demand have become more evident. In terms of growth rates, the growth rate of the total social logistics amount in the first three quarters increased by 0.2 percentage points compared to January to August; in September, it increased by 5.6% year-on-year, an increase of 0.9 percentage points compared to August.

Incremental policies are being coordinated to promote the recovery of the industry chain and supply chain. In the first three quarters, the demand for industrial goods logistics achieved rapid growth, with the total logistics amount of industrial goods increasing by 5.6% year-on-year, a 0.1 percentage point increase compared to January to August. Various sub-sectors have seen improved demand coordination, reflected in "comprehensive improvement," "linked recovery," and "enhanced quality improvement." Firstly, the comprehensive recovery of the structure of industrial goods logistics is evident. In the first three quarters, over 92% of the total logistics amount in the industrial sector showed growth, with over 90% of regions experiencing an increase in the total logistics amount of industrial goods. Secondly, the situation of linked recovery between upstream and downstream sectors is stable. Regions actively implement the "two news" policy, accelerate energy efficiency, related industries, and product logistics demand showing good momentum. In the first three quarters, the demand for consumer goods manufacturing logistics increased by over 10% in sectors like broadcasting equipment manufacturing and communication equipment manufacturing; the demand for food and agricultural equipment manufacturing logistics increased by over 30%, driving the accelerated recovery of related logistics demand in upstream sectors such as nonferrous metal processing and metal product sectors. Thirdly, innovation vitality stimulates the cultivation and growth of new quality production forces. Scientific and technological innovation and digital economy construction are progressing in an orderly manner in various regions, the "two heavy" policies continue to exert force, driving the rapid growth of production activities of enterprises in the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain. The demand for high-tech manufacturing logistics increased by 9.1% year-on-year in the first three quarters, maintaining a high level, with industries like smart unmanned aerial vehicle manufacturing and smart in-vehicle equipment manufacturing growing by over 30%; the logistics quantity of products such as virtual reality and smart interactions increased by over 10% year-on-year.

High-level openness continues to advance, and the stability and upward trend of import logistics are noticeable. This year, China has actively promoted independent opening up, gradually expanding foreign market access for goods and commodity imports in an orderly manner. In the first three quarters, the total amount of import logistics increased by 4.2% year-on-year. In terms of structure, import logistics effectively support industrial transformation and flexibly match diversified consumption. Data shows that in the first three quarters, the logistics quantity of bulk commodities such as coal, natural gas, iron ore, and sand increased by 11.9%, 13%, and 4.9% respectively; the logistics quantity of electronic products such as semiconductor manufacturing equipment, integrated circuits, and flat panel display modules increased by over 10%; driven by seasonal factors, the total logistics amount of specialty fruits and clothing and other consumer goods increased by 7.1% and 6.1% respectively.

Policies promoting consumption across multiple formats are being simultaneously implemented, expanding and upgrading logistics for livelihood consumption. In the first three quarters, the total amount of logistics for industrial and residential units increased by 7.6% year-on-year, with growth rates remaining relatively high from January to August. This year, the policy environment has continued to improve, new business models have continued to emerge, aiding the growth in scale and structural upgrading of logistics in related fields. Firstly, the integration of e-commerce models and private traffic persists. Live streaming commerce on social platforms continues its high-speed growth, driving a 7.9% year-on-year increase in physical goods online retail sales, accounting for 25.7% of the total social retail sales of consumer goods, an increase of 0.4 percentage points over the first half of the year. Secondly, the integration of e-commerce models and physical retail is accelerating. Various branded merchants and consumer groups efficiently interact, pilot cities expanding their one-quarter hour convenient life circles, promoting the rapid growth of urban and instant delivery services. Companies focusing on intensively researching their order volumes saw year-on-year growth exceeding 60%. Thirdly, physical stores are investing in direct sourcing, optimized supply chains, flexible delivery, and precision memberships, stabilizing commercial logistics. In the first three quarters, the logistics demand for convenience stores and specialty stores increased by over 4% year-on-year, with double-digit growth in the supply chain's efficient and stable member-based retail logistics demand.

Throughout this year, various departments and regions have successively issued policy documents to reduce the overall logistics costs of the whole society, promoting high-quality logistics development, efficient adaptation of logistics supply and demand, smooth circulation of supply chains, and stable and declining total logistics costs of the whole society. In the first three quarters, the total social logistics costs were 13.4 trillion yuan, increasing by 2.3% year-on-year. The ratio of total social logistics costs to GDP was 14.1%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points compared to the first half of the year, and a decrease of 0.2 percentage points compared to the same period last year.

The industrial agglomeration effects are gradually becoming evident, and the optimization of logistics resource allocation continues. By the end of the third quarter, 151 national logistics hubs had been planned, accelerating the formation of a modern logistics operation system based on "channels + hubs + networks". Key hub cities support national strategies and promote industrial agglomeration. For example, Qinzhou hub actively connects with industrial transfers in the eastern region. From January to August, Qinzhou Port handled a cargo throughput of 0.136 billion tons, an increase of 9.9% year-on-year, while the foreign trade import and export value of Qinzhou City reached 57.58 billion yuan, a 12% increase year-on-year. Hub cities along the Western Land-Sea New Corridor leverage their strengths, strengthen and extend their supply chains, intensify their gradient layout, gather multiple industries like automobiles, pharmaceuticals, cold chains, cross-border e-commerce, and bulk commodities. In the first three quarters, intermodal rail-sea freight services have shipped over 0.6 million TEUs, achieving steady growth.

Transportation service guarantees have been upgraded, and the transportation structure continues to adjust. The transportation costs as a ratio of GDP in the first three quarters decreased by 0.1 percentage points compared to the same period last year, and transportation operations remain stable. Looking at the optimization of the structure, the freight volume increased by 3.3% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with maritime and civil aviation freight volumes growing faster than the average level, while the proportion of road freight volume decreased by 0.1 percentage points compared to the same period last year. Considering quality enhancement, the effectiveness of goods transport shifting from road to rail and road to water is beginning to show. The advancement of comprehensive transportation modes such as containerized rail-water combined transportation has accelerated, with an increase of 0.2 percentage points in the proportion of combined transport. The planning capabilities of various transport routes have improved, with the average transport distance for freight decreasing slightly by 0.2% compared to the first half of the year.

The stable connection between production and sales, with the growth momentum of warehousing costs slowing down. In the first three quarters, the storage costs as a ratio to GDP decreased by 0.1 percentage points compared to the same period last year, and destocking in most production and circulation sectors accelerated. In September, the average inventory turnover index in China's warehousing index increased by 3.4 percentage points from the previous month; the end-of-period inventory index decreased by 3.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an upward trend in the turnover efficiency of storage links, with social inventory levels remaining stable with a slight decrease. The growth rate of storage and capital occupation costs in the first three quarters decreased by 0.2 percentage points.

The coordination of logistics policies is forming synergy, with a stable and improving business environment. Various departments and regions are working together to introduce a series of policies in regulatory facilitation, transportation passage, land supply, and other areas, helping to systematically reduce costs. In the first three quarters, the management costs as a ratio to GDP decreased by 0.04 percentage points compared to the same period last year. The formulation of the "Effective Action Plan for Reducing the Logistics Costs of the Entire Society" strengthens policy coordination and teamwork, effectively promoting the reduction of logistics costs for the entire society, enhancing the competitiveness of enterprises and the real economy. The General Administration of Customs continues to advance the special action to facilitate cross-border trade, standardizing and reducing taxes and fees in logistics management of imports and exports. The Ministry of Transport is advancing the Special Action for Reducing Costs, Improving Quality, and Enhancing Efficiency in Transportation and Logistics, accelerating the improvement of the comprehensive transportation service system, strengthening efficient connections in all links, and improving the logistics flow. The Ministry of Natural Resources issued a notice on "Strengthening the Guarantee of Natural Resource Elements to Promote the High-Quality Development of Modern Logistics", proposing an increase in the supply of logistics development space, overall planning of various logistics facilities construction, and further effectively reducing the cost of logistics land and sea use.

The total revenue of the logistics industry is steadily growing, with a good supply-demand match. In the first three quarters, the total revenue of the logistics industry reached 10 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, with the growth rate basically consistent with the first half of the year, and the logistics market scale maintaining steady growth. In terms of structure, key transportation logistics supply is stable, with the cumulative volume of goods sent by the national railways exceeding 1 billion tons since the third quarter, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, setting a historical record for single-quarter volume of goods sent, and the national railways sent 9.58 million standard containers, a 17.3% year-on-year increase. Aviation logistics nodes such as Ezhou Huahu, Guangzhou Baiyun, Hangzhou Xiaoshan, Zhengzhou Xinzheng, and Qingdao Jiaodong are accelerating their recovery, with the national cargo and mail transport volume in the third quarter increasing by nearly 20% year-on-year.

The logistics market's supply-demand relationship is continuously adjusting, and service prices are trending upwards from a low position. In September, there was a slight warming in upstream demand, with adjustments and upgrades in the supply of specific areas, leading to a low-level rebound in freight rate index. In September, China's road logistics freight price index was 104.4 points, a 1.4% increase from the previous month. The average value of the coastal (bulk) comprehensive freight price index released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange was 995.7 points, up 2.3% from the previous month.

The prosperity level of the logistics industry is stable and trending towards improvement, with accelerated development in emerging areas. In the first three quarters, the average value of the logistics industry's prosperity index is 51.3%, and the monthly index in September increased by 0.9 percentage points. Among them, the steady growth in segmented areas such as railway transportation and road transportation, with the total volume index of business reaching 54.4% and 53%, an increase of 0.5 and 0.6 percentage points respectively, stabilizing the industry's foundation. Sectors like aviation and e-commerce express delivery are rapidly growing, with total volume index of business reaching 57.8% and 69.9%, far above the industry average.

The new order index of the logistics industry is trending upwards, consolidating development expectations. In September, the new order index in the logistics industry prosperity index was 52.3%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points month-on-month, with the new order index in the eastern and western regions increasing by 0.1 and 0.9 percentage points respectively, and the new order index in the central region rising to a high level of 53.1%. The industry's overall outlook for the future market is optimistic, with the business activity expectation index in September at 57.4%, a month-on-month increase of 1.1 percentage points, and the business activity expectation indexes for aviation transportation and postal express at 60.1% and 63.1%, placing them in the high prosperity range of over 60%.

In September, logistics enterprise operational indicators showed positive changes, with the direction of sustainable development of the industry gradually becoming clear, with orders and business volume picking up, and marginal improvements in indicators such as logistics business revenue, profit levels, and capital turnover.

Enterprise services are moving towards efficiency and diversified development, accelerating the transformation and upgrade in quality. Key surveyed logistics companies saw a 4.0% year-on-year growth in logistics business revenue in the first three quarters, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from January to August. Postal express delivery and aviation logistics companies have maintained a relatively fast growth in business models, with revenue from integrated, comprehensive supply chain businesses growing significantly faster than other business types. At the same time, business operations are shifting towards high efficiency and internationalization. The timeliness and fulfillment level of e-commerce and express delivery are at a high level, with the timeliness index and fulfillment rate index of e-commerce logistics increasing by 0.1 and 0.3 points respectively in September. The "2024 Fourth Quarter Logistics Early Warning Forecast Report" shows that nearly 50% of enterprises will accelerate the promotion of international logistics services and actively expand logistics markets in ASEAN, Central Asia, and Russia.

Continuously empowering through intelligence and digitization, operational efficiency has steadily improved. Since the beginning of this year, the level of intelligence and automation technology in the logistics sector has been enhanced, while big data analysis and artificial intelligence applications have become more widespread, helping companies reduce costs and improve efficiency. In the first three quarters, for every 100 yuan of logistics revenue, the cost ratio decreased slightly by 0.2 yuan compared to January-August, by improving the efficiency of transportation equipment operation, safety management level, etc., effectively reducing the failure rate, accident rate, cargo damage rate of facilities and equipment in transit, reducing more than 50% of the consumption costs such as insurance in the operational process.

Overall, core indicators such as the total social logistics volume and total revenue of the logistics industry achieved stable growth in the first three quarters, while the level of social logistics costs remained stable with a slight decrease, providing quality and efficiency guarantees for economic transformation and upgrading. In the future, opportunities and challenges coexist for the high-quality development of logistics. The favorable conditions of a broad market and strong economic resilience in China remain unchanged. With the coordinated efforts of incremental policies and stock policies, logistics has a solid foundation for stable operation, and the fourth quarter will present a development trend of steady progress. However, it is also important to note that the economy is still in a critical period of structural adjustment and transformation. The domestic economy is facing issues such as insufficient effective demand, poor circulation, and inadequate new impetus. The international situation is complex and changeable, with unstable and uncertain risks in the supply chain. In the next stage, logistics services need to develop towards high-quality depth, enhancing the extensibility and convenience of the chain, strengthening the adaptability and responsiveness of supply and demand, further improving the level of diversification and internationalization.