前3 季度收入逆势增长，主业盈利稳定。公司前3 季度报表收入增长12.8%，拆分看预计主要为本部贡献，裕丰汉唐依然承压。盈利能力看，前3 季度毛利率17.3%，同比下降1.5 个pct，我们判断毛利率下降主要受到AB 收入确认占比影响，实际盈利或相对稳定；前3 季度期间费率6.6%，同比下降1.9 个pct，其中管理费率因股权激励费用减少而下降1.2 个pct，财务和销售费率分别下降0.3、0.2 个pct。公允减值变动收益同比减少1815 万；应收账款减值增加导致信用减值损失增加4873 万；最终实现归属净利率7.5%，同比下降0.5 个pct；扣非归属净利率6.6%，同比提升0.1 个pct。Description of the event
The company achieved reported revenue of 6.46 billion yuan, an increase of 12.8%; realized net profit of 0.482 billion, an increase of 5.5%; realized net profit of 0.427 billion yuan, an increase of 14.1%; of these, Q3 achieved statement revenue of 2.556 billion in a single quarter, an increase of 3.6%; realized attributable net profit of 0.238 billion, an increase of 41.5%; and realized net profit without return to mother of 0.192 billion, an increase of 23.5%.
Incident comments
Revenue in the first 3 quarters bucked the trend, and profits in the main business were stable. The company's revenue for the first three quarters increased by 12.8%. The split is expected to mainly contribute to the headquarters, and Yufeng Hantang is still under pressure. In terms of profitability, the gross profit margin for the first 3 quarters was 17.3%, down 1.5 pcts from the previous year. We determined that the decline in gross margin was mainly affected by the share of AB revenue confirmed, and actual profit was relatively stable; the rate for the first 3 quarters was 6.6%, down 1.9 pcts from the previous year. Among them, the management rate decreased by 1.2 pcts due to a reduction in equity incentive expenses, and financial and sales rates decreased by 0.3 and 0.2 pcts, respectively. Profit from fair impairment changes decreased by 18.15 million year on year; credit impairment losses increased by 48.73 million due to increased impairment of accounts receivable; ultimately realized net interest rate of 7.5%, a decrease of 0.5 pct year on year; after deducting non-attributable net interest rate of 6.6%, an increase of 0.1 pct year on year.
Q3 The business continued to improve. The company's revenue for the 3rd quarter increased 3.6% year on year. The division's business may continue to grow steadily. The company continues to increase gap market development and intensive distribution under channel decline in traditional store retail channels. In addition, the company's small B channel continues to advance; since the main revenue is the big B-side business, which is greatly affected by real estate, and the company actively controls risks, Q3 is expected to still be under pressure or decline year on year. In terms of profitability, Q3 achieved a gross profit margin of 17.1%, a decrease of 0.2 pcts; the rate for the period was 6.0%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.7 pcts, of which financial and management rates decreased by 0.2 and 0.6 pcts, respectively. Net investment income increased by 28.86 million year-on-year, or mainly due to Q3 housing deliveries, etc.; profit and loss from changes in fair value increased by 3.84 million year-on-year, mainly due to the increase in stock holding prices. In the end, the net attributable interest rate was 9.3%, an increase of 2.5 pcts over the previous year; after deducting the non-attributable net interest rate of 7.5%, an increase of 1.2 pcts over the previous year.
Excellent business quality, high dividends and high cash content. 2024Q3 achieved a net operating cash flow of 0.14 billion, with a net present ratio of 0.59. It is expected that there will be a marked recovery in the fourth quarter, mainly due to the impact on the pace of supplier payments. Excellent operating quality has laid the foundation for high dividends. The company distributed a dividend of 0.28 yuan per share in mid-2024, corresponding to the total cash volume of about 0.23 billion, and a dividend rate of 94.21%. In view of the company's excellent cash performance, it is expected that it will maintain a high dividend ratio in the future.
Small B expansion continues to provide core growth momentum. The company continues to expand its channels, focusing on past retail stores, and gradually developing channels for furniture manufacturers and home improvement companies. Judging from the revenue growth performance in recent quarters, initial results have already been seen. For traditional retail channels, on the one hand, we will accelerate the development of empty markets, and on the other hand, we will increase channel decline and intensive distribution layout for mature regions to further increase regional market share. The company has just begun to develop the small B channel, and there is plenty of room for future development. After the branch is established, the multi-channel operation strategy will continue to advance. In 2024, the company has developed business cooperation with more than 20,000 custom furniture companies, and the share of furniture factory channels has increased to about 36%.
Undervalued and cost-effective. The continued growth of the company's board has proven growth α. In the future, first, there is still room for small B channels to expand; second, channels will sink to accelerate the layout of the township market. Without considering impairment of goodwill, net profit is expected to be 0.69 or 0.85 billion in 2024 and 2025, corresponding to PE15 or 12 times, and valuation flexibility can be expected.
Risk warning
1. Real estate completion expectations continue to be low;
2. Channel development speed is low as expected.
