share_log

政策组合拳持续发力 港股新一轮牛市未完待续?

Continuous strong policy combination, is the new bull market in Hong Kong stocks not over yet?

Zhitong Finance ·  Oct 29 18:18

Following the Chinese government's announcement of strong stock market liquidity-boosting measures and a basket of policy measures to stimulate economic growth, the UK-based banking giant hsbc holdings $HSBC HOLDINGS (00005.HK)$notifier that trading activities in Hong Kong stocks for the bank's clients have significantly increased.

Following the Chinese government's announcement of strong stock market liquidity-boosting measures and a basket of policy measures to stimulate economic growth, the UK-based banking giant hsbc holdings indicated that trading activities in Hong Kong stocks for the bank's clients have significantly increased, with overall client trading business being comprehensively boosted by the surge in Hong Kong stock popularity. Prior to this, the Wall Street financial giants goldman sachs and citigroup have successively released bullish research reports on the Hong Kong stock market. Goldman sachs, referred to as the "vanguard of the bull market," declared that the policy "combination punch" has stimulated this round of "long-term bull market rally" in Hong Kong stocks, which is far from over, while citigroup boldly predicts that by the middle of next year,$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$it may hit 26,000 points.

HSBC stated on Tuesday that last month, the Chinese government's announced "combination punch" policy had led to increased market volatility in the Hong Kong stock market by the end of the third quarter, greatly boosting the scale of client wealth, as well as customer trading activities in stocks and forex markets. HSBC emphasized that the government's stimulus measures will continue to substantially promote stock market transactions in Hong Kong. HSBC's bullish stance on Hong Kong stocks, along with Wall Street investment institutions, may indicate that a new round of growth may follow after the sideways shakeout in the Hong Kong stock market.

Driven by the surge in global funds' enthusiasm for Hong Kong stocks in the third quarter, HSBC, considering Hong Kong its largest market, announced third-quarter profits exceeding market expectations. This marks HSBC's first performance under the leadership of its new CEO, Georges Elhedery. The broad recovery of HSBC's business activities highlights signs of recovery in the world's second-largest economy under the government's latest stimulus measures.

Foreign investment enthusiasm for Hong Kong stocks continues to rise.

The Hong Kong stock market is typically the first gateway for foreign investment in China and the best entry point for foreign institutions like Wall Street to invest in Chinese companies. More importantly, benefiting from the unexpected 50 basis point Fed rate cut kicking off a rate-cutting cycle, along with the liquidity support provided by domestic monetary stimulus policies, Hong Kong stocks can be said to have enjoyed a "dual liquidity dividend" from China and the USA.

Compared to the A-share market in China, Hong Kong stocks benefit more from the expectation of global loose liquidity. After all, the unrestricted Hong Kong stock market for foreign investment can benefit from domestic stimulus policies, the Fed's rate-cut cycle, and even the massive liquidity stimulus brought by rate cuts in Europe. Looking ahead to the future of Hong Kong stocks, a new bull market may be far from over, fueled by sustained liquidity benefits and policy expectations such as domestic consumption promotion, birth incentives, and policies to boost private sector economic development.

The hot etfs focusing on Chinese assets listed on the NYSE - $iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI.US)$ , the overall ETF size has exceeded the $10 billion mark, highlighting the continuous enthusiasm of foreign funds for Chinese assets, especially for investment in Hong Kong stocks. This is also the first time that an ETF in the category of Chinese stock ETFs listed on the US stock market has a target size exceeding $10 billion. Since the beginning of the year, this ETF has a value increase of up to 34%, outperforming even$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$.

It is understood that the iShares China Large Cap Stock ETF focuses comprehensively on the Hong Kong stock market, providing international investors with the main way to invest in China's top-listed companies. The ETF covers the 50 stocks with the largest market capitalization and best liquidity in the Hong Kong stock market. The first largest weighted stock in the iShares China Large Cap Stock ETF is Meituan, accounting for over 10%, followed by$Alibaba (BABA.US)$and$TENCENT (00700.HK)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$CCB (00939.HK)$ and $JD-SW (09618.HK)$ In the top ten, there is $XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$BYD COMPANY (01211.HK)$N/A.$PING AN (02318.HK)$and$BANK OF CHINA (03988.HK)$ and $ICBC (01398.HK)$ These are the hottest stock symbols in the Hong Kong stock market.

"KWEB," an ETF focusing on Chinese overseas-listed internet companies provided by KraneShares, exhibits an optimistic outlook on Chinese assets. Brendan Ahern, the Chief Investment Officer of KraneShares, expressed positivity about the prospects of Chinese assets. He stated, "For a long time, Chinese stocks have been severely underrepresented in global stock indices, with generally lower valuations compared to similar global stocks. If the Fed is lowering interest rates, why not invest some profits in higher value Chinese assets?" Ahern said in an interview. "Valuations contain huge investment opportunities."

"Bull market leader" Goldman Sachs and other Wall Street financial giants are bullish on the prospects of Chinese assets.

The government's massive stimulus plan has triggered a new wave of foreign buying and a frenzy of upgrading investment ratings of the Chinese stock market, including some long-term bearish foreign institutions like BlackRock Inc. now turning to a bullish stance. These foreign institutions are using real money to drive a substantial rebound in the Chinese stock market.

BlackRock, which has been cautiously positioned on the Chinese stock market for a long time, recently stated that it is upgrading Chinese stocks from 'neutral' to 'overweight.' The institution believes that with the discount of the Chinese stock market compared to developed market stock markets approaching record levels and the strong catalysts that may stimulate foreign investors to re-enter the market, major institutions still have room to moderately increase holdings of Chinese stocks in the short term.

"Goldman Sachs", known as the 'vanguard of global stock markets', recently released a research report stating that it has raised its rating on the Chinese stock market (including Hong Kong stocks and A-shares) to 'overweight', and also$CSI 300 Index (800122.HK)$The target point has been raised from 4000 to 4600. Tuesday$CSI 300 Index (399300.SZ)$The index closed at 3924.65 points. Goldman Sachs will also cover Alibaba, Tencent, and$Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH)$China's core assets including Alibaba, Tencent, and others. The target point of the MSCI China Index has been raised from 66 to 84, compared to which the latest point of the MSCI China Index closed at 67.34 points. In terms of industry allocation, Goldman Sachs stated that due to increased capital market activity and improved asset performance, insurance and other finance (such as brokerage firms, exchanges, and institutional investors) are upgraded to "overweight"; at the same time, Goldman Sachs maintains an "overweight" position on China's internet and entertainment, technology hardware and semiconductors, consumer retail and services, and daily necessities sectors.

Another major Wall Street bank Citigroup recently published a research report stating that the Hang Seng Index benchmark index as of the end of June 2025 has been raised by 24% to 26,000 points, with a target set at 28,000 points by the end of 2025. In comparison, the Hang Seng Index closed at 20701.14 points on Tuesday, and Citigroup has a$CSI 300 Index (000300.SH)$及MSCI中国指数明年上半年目标点位则分别调升至4,600及84点,截至明年底的目标点位则定为4,900及90点。

Wall Street's well-known investment institution Bernstein recently reaffirmed its 'tactical shareholding position' in the Chinese stock market and stated that, under policy support, the Chinese stock market will further rise. In a latest research report released on Thursday, the institution wrote: 'A series of stimulating policies recently introduced by the Chinese government, as well as fiscal stimulus initiatives, have triggered a strong bullish response from investors, with a large influx of international funds pouring into the Chinese stock market, and passive funds from the usa also hitting a historical high. After the introduction of a series of policies, we have switched to a bullish stance, and still believe that the risk-return profile of the China market tilts towards the upside.'

此前曾正确预测中国股市9月底大涨的美国银行策略师Lars Naeckter近日表示,虽然港股$Hang Seng H-Share Index ETF (02828.HK)$指数在近几日内回吐一部分涨幅,但考虑到国家政策继续发力和外资机构重新进入港股市场的意愿,市场仍有可能进一步反弹。Naeckter的美银团队还建议对美股市场的“中国大盘股ETF”采用看涨期权策略。

Global top investment firm Macquarie, headquartered in Australia, recently published a report raising the stock ratings for several Chinese internet companies listed in the US and Hong Kong, mainly due to improved visibility of corporate profits and continued policy stimulus measures by the Chinese government. Macquarie's analysis team pointed out in the research report that compared to early 2023, the fundamentals of these internet companies are actually stronger now, but their valuation levels have only reached half of early 2023.

麦格理将阿里巴巴和$PDD Holdings (PDD.US)$The stock rating has been upgraded from 'neutral' to 'outperforming the market', with the institution reiterating the 'outperforming the market' rating for jd.com and pdd holdings. The institution's analysis team also expects that the Chinese government will take further action to stimulate economic growth, especially in the consumer and digital service sectors, anticipating that these internet companies will continue to benefit from the policies.

Editor/rice

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
    Write a comment