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江河集团(601886):受减值拖累利润短暂承压 看好公司海外业务拓展

Jianghe Group (601886): Driven by impairment, profits were briefly pressured, optimistic about the company's overseas business expansion

tianfeng Securities ·  Oct 29

Revenue grew steadily, and profits were briefly pressured by part-time employment

24Q1-3 achieved revenue of 15.422 billion yuan, +9.26% year over year, with return to mother and net profit of 0.433 and 0.322 billion, +8.55% and -16.63% year-on-year, non-recurring profit and loss of 0.111 billion, an increase of 0.098 billion yuan over the previous year. Q3 achieved revenue of 5.502 billion in a single quarter, +4.47% year-on-year, and 0.111 and 0.046 billion in non-net profit, +3.94% and -63.26% year-on-year. The decline after deducting non-net profit was mainly due to a 0.08 billion year-on-year increase in accrued credit impairment losses in the third quarter.

Orders are growing steadily, and I am optimistic about the company's overseas business expansion

The company won a total of 20.93 billion bids for the building decoration business in the first three quarters, +8.80%. Among them, the standard amounts for curtain wall systems and interior systems were about 13.302 and 7.628 billion, +3.18% and +20.20% compared to the same period. Façade orders grew steadily, and the interior decoration growth rate was obvious. The Q3 decoration business won the bid of 8.046 billion in a single quarter, +1.36% year on year, 5.042 billion for curtain wall systems, -4.72% year on year, and 3.004 billion for interior decoration systems, +13.53% year on year.

24Q1-3 has undertaken a total of about 0.53 billion photovoltaic construction projects (BIPV), of which 0.38 billion yuan was won in Q3 in a single quarter. The company formulated an “overseas” strategy for the curtain wall business, actively expanded the Middle East market including Saudi Arabia and Dubai, as well as markets in Asian countries such as Japan, South Korea, and Indonesia, and successfully won the bid for Indonesia's Two Sudirman Jakarta curtain wall project, with a contract amount of about 0.261 billion yuan. The company is expected to gradually expand the overseas export business of products and expand new business growth poles.

Net interest rate increased slightly and cash flow improved year over year

The company's comprehensive gross margin for the first three quarters of 24 was 15.26%, +0.08pct year on year, and 14.59% in Q3, -0.92pct year on year. The cost rate for the 24Q1-3 period was 9.87%, -0.25pct; sales, management, R&D, and finance expenses were 1.34%, 5.08%, 2.74%, and 0.71%, respectively, +0.11pct, -0.11pct, -0.09pct, and -0.16pct, respectively. Asset and credit impairment losses were 0.203 billion yuan, up 0.037 billion from the same period last year, and net income from fair value changes increased 0.065 billion year on year. Under the combined influence, the company's net interest rate was 3.44%, +0.10pct year on year, and the Q3 net interest rate increased 0.18 pct to 2.56%. 24Q1-3's net CFO net amount was -0.186 billion, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.027 billion, mainly due to a year-on-year increase in project payback ratios of 106.89% and 109.01%, respectively, with changes of +8.97pct and +2.37pct, respectively; Q3's net CFO net volume in a single quarter was 0.266 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 0.227 billion.

A leader in the curtain wall industry, maintaining a “buy” rating

The company adheres to the collaborative development of multiple brands, focuses on the fields of curtain wall, interior decoration and design, and implements leading strategies. Through technological innovation, intensive management and business collaboration, we promote standardization, systematization and integration of the building decoration business to achieve steady and sustainable development. The curtain wall business will continue to consolidate its leading position in the industry and promote high-quality development. Considering the strong downward pressure on real estate and a slight reduction in profit forecasts, we expect the company's net profit to be 0.73, 0.83, and 0.95 billion (previous values were 0.76, 0.87, and 1 billion), respectively, corresponding to PE of 8.9, 7.7, and 6.8 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.

Risk warning: New business development falls short of expectations; overseas operation risks; project implementation falls short of expectations.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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