2024Q3，公司销售毛利率为29.26%，同比增长5.62pct，环比增长6.62pct；公司销售净利率为12.32%，同比增长5.85pct，环比增长3.31pct；我们认为盈利能力的提升或主要源于海外收入占比的提升以及产品结构的优化。公司三季度末合同负债为7354 万元，较二季度末增长43%，较2023 年同期同比增长17%，显示出在手订单的持续提升。公司大幅扩充产能，截至2024 年三季度末，公司在建工程合计1.74 亿元，约占公司总固定资产的52%，有望充分受益于海外光储需求增长。Key points of investment
The company released its three-quarter report for 2024. In the first three quarters of 2024, revenue was 3.069 billion yuan, -7.30% YoY; net profit to mother was 0.302 billion yuan, +44.82% YoY. In the Q3 quarter, the company achieved revenue of 1.143 billion yuan, +0.83% YoY, -5.88%, and realized net profit to mother 0.141 billion yuan, +92.59% YoY, +28.83%.
Profitability has improved markedly, and production expansion is gaining momentum
2024Q3, the company's gross sales margin was 29.26%, up 5.62 pct year on year, up 6.62 pct month on month; the company's net sales margin was 12.32%, up 5.85 pct year on year, up 3.31 pct month on month; we believe that the increase in profitability is mainly due to an increase in overseas revenue share and product structure optimization. The company's contract debt at the end of the third quarter was $73.54 million, up 43% from the end of the second quarter and 17% year-on-year increase over the same period in 2023, showing a continued increase in on-hand orders. The company has greatly expanded production capacity. By the end of the third quarter of 2024, the total number of projects under construction by the company was 0.174 billion yuan, accounting for 52% of the company's total fixed assets, which is expected to fully benefit from the increase in overseas optical storage demand.
Demand in the overseas optical storage market is growing, and the company's years of intensive cultivation are expected to benefit from good lighting conditions in emerging overseas markets such as the Middle East, India, Africa, and Southeast Asia, with a weak power grid base, and large market space for photovoltaics and energy storage; the company's advance layout has achieved significant growth in the Indian and Middle East markets since 2024, and 2024H1's overseas business revenue increased 115.46% year on year. In traditional overseas high-end markets, the company shipped the first batch of 22 string energy storage converter boosters to the US market in September 2024 for use in a 140.8 MW independent energy storage power plant in Texas; the company's breakthrough in the US market is expected to lay a good foundation for further large-scale orders in the high-value market in the future.
Investment advice
We expect the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 6.738/8.629/10.592 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 36.61%/28.05%/22.75%; net profit to mother of 0.524/0.773/1.041 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 83.39%/47.37%/34.75%; EPS of 1.46/2.15/2.90 yuan/share, respectively, and a 3-year CAGR of 53.85%. In view of the positive results achieved in the company's vigorous development of the overseas optical storage market, profitability improved markedly, and maintained a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: 1) Increased industry competition; 2) Significant fluctuations in raw material prices; 3) Changes in overseas trade policies