公司呈现结构性增长，新能源行业大幅下滑，非新能源行业有所增长。今年以来锂电、光伏由于项目减少，需求端整体较为清淡导致行业资本开支强度大幅下滑，公司新能源行业也同比出现较大幅度的下滑。而考虑到今年以来电子等传统行业整体需求端有所复苏，公司1-3Q24 期间非新能源行业收入同比增长，推动整体收入1-3Q24 同比增长9.62%。我们认为随着公司管理变革的效果持续显现，公司在经销、行业扩张等方面有望持续贡献增量收入。3Q24 results were slightly lower than our expectations
The company announced 3Q24 results: During the 1-3Q24 period, the company achieved revenue of 1.155 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.62%, net profit of 0.144 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 56.36%, after deducting non-net profit of about 0.142 billion yuan, an increase of 83.12%; of these, during the 3Q24 period, the company achieved revenue of 0.332 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.59%, and net profit of 0.028 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 65.60%, after deducting non-net profit Net profit was approximately 0.028 billion yuan, up 112.04% year over year. Overall, due to the sharp decline in revenue in the new energy industry since 2024, the company's revenue declined slightly in the third quarter, and the performance was slightly lower than our previous expectations.
Development trends
The company showed structural growth. The new energy industry declined sharply, and the non-new energy industry grew. Since this year, due to a reduction in lithium batteries and photovoltaics projects, the overall demand side is relatively light, leading to a sharp decline in the capital expenditure intensity of the industry, and the company's new energy industry has also experienced a sharp decline over the same period last year. However, considering that the overall demand side of traditional industries such as electronics has recovered since this year, the company's revenue from the non-new energy industry increased year-on-year during the 1-3Q24 period, driving overall revenue up 9.62% year-on-year in 1-3Q24. We believe that as the effects of the company's management changes continue to show, the company is expected to continue to contribute incremental revenue in distribution and industry expansion.
The company's profitability continued to improve, and gross profit margin and net profit margin improved significantly year-on-year. The share of the company's high-gross margin stepper system and control system business continued to rise during the 3Q24 period. Combined with the continuous localization of components and the increase in self-supply ratio since this year, the company's comprehensive gross margin increased by 3.7ppt to 40% year over year. Furthermore, due to the dilution of the company's equity incentive expenses and cost reduction and efficiency, the company's sales and management expenses continued to shrink. 3Q24 declined by 1.7ppt and 1.1ppt, respectively, but as the company continued to strengthen R&D investment, the overall R&D cost ratio increased by 1.4ppt to 17.7% year on year.
Profit forecasting and valuation
Due to the decline in the company's revenue side, 3Q24 revenue declined. The overall 1-3Q24 revenue growth rate was about 9.6%. We lowered our 2024 net profit by 12.3% to 0.21 billion yuan. At the same time, due to fluctuations on the demand side, we also lowered our net profit for 25 by 13.5% to 0.26 billion yuan. The current stock price corresponds to 36.4x/29.5x price-earnings ratio in 2024/25. Maintaining an outperforming industry rating and a target price of 26 yuan, corresponding to the price-earnings ratio of 37.7x and 30.2x in 2024/25, there is room for 2.9% increase compared to the current stock price.
risks
Macroeconomic fluctuations have intensified competition in the industry.
