盈利能力保持稳健。24年前9月公司毛利率25.2%，同比-0.3pct；管理费用率/销售费用率分别为6.3/2.9%，同比+0.04/0.3pct。24年前9月公司净利率 9.1%，同比持平；其中单24Q3净利率 12.6%，同比+0.1pct。伴随公司智能工厂建设提高运营效率/利润率更高的烟包等业务收入占比逐步提高，预计公司盈利能力未来有望进一步增强。Incident: The company released its three-quarter report for 2024. In the first 24 years, the company achieved operating income of 12.26 billion yuan, +13.4% year over year; net profit to mother was 1.11 billion yuan, +13.0% year over year. Among them, 24Q3 achieved operating income of 4.91 billion yuan, +10.5% year-on-year; net profit to mother of 0.62 billion yuan, +11.4% year-on-year.
Demand for consumer electronics has been steadily recovering, and diversified business development is progressing smoothly. In terms of 3C packaging, downstream consumer electronics demand recovered in 2024, and considering the catalytic effect of the Q3 consumer electronics industry, the company's consumer electronics packaging business is expected to grow steadily in Q3; in terms of tobacco and alcohol packaging, the company continues to strengthen cooperation with China Tobacco companies to increase the market share of cigarette packs, and added winning projects such as Henan Tobacco and Shaanxi China Tobacco in 24Q3. The eco-friendly packaging and packaging ancillary products business is expected to continue the steady growth trend in the first half of the year.
Domestic smart factory transformation continues to advance, and the overseas market expansion process is in line with expectations. In the domestic market, the company is one of the earliest companies in the industry to begin intelligent transformation. It continues to actively promote smart factory construction and improve production efficiency by streamlining production managers/improving production processes, etc., which will positively drive the company's gross margin in the long run. In overseas markets, the company's Philippine factory and Mexican factory opened one after another in July and September, respectively, and are expected to be officially put into operation by the end of the year. The two factories involved two new categories of leather box packaging and heavy packaging, which further expanded the company's overseas business type and improved the company's global layout.
Profitability remains steady. 24 years ago, the company's gross profit margin was 25.2%, -0.3 pct year on year; management expense ratio/sales expense ratio was 6.3/ 2.9%, respectively, +0.04/0.3 pct year on year. In September 24, the company's net interest rate was 9.1%, the same as the previous year; of these, the net profit margin for 24Q3 was 12.6%, +0.1 pct year on year. As the company's smart factory construction improves operating efficiency/the share of revenue from cigarette packs and other businesses with higher profit margins, it is expected that the company's profitability will further increase in the future.
Investment advice: The company's 3C business is growing steadily, the diversified layout continues to build revenue growth, and profitability is expected to further increase with the continuous empowerment of smart factories. The company's 2024/2025/2026 EPS is expected to be 1.76/2.06/2.34 yuan respectively, and the closing price of 24.68 yuan on October 28 corresponds to PE of 14X/12X/11X, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: the risk of raw material price fluctuations, the risk of increased market competition, and the risk that downstream market demand falls short of expectations.
