①International oil prices plummet in the short term, what are the market expectations for the medium to long term? ②Hong Kong petroleum stocks have weakened against the trend, what risks deserve special attention?
Financial联社 October 29th News (Editor 冯轶) affected by the continuous heavy falls in international oil prices, Hong Kong petroleum stocks have been sluggish in the past few days, accelerating the decline today.
As of the time of publication, the three major oil companies have experienced significant declines, with Sinopec (00857.HK) down over 3%, PetroChina (00386.HK) down nearly 3%, CNOOC (00883.HK) down over 2%, Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical (00338.HK), and Kunlun Energy (00135.HK) following the downward trend.
On the news front, despite recent tensions in the Middle East, Israel's latest retaliatory strike against Iran bypassed oil and nuclear facilities, leading to the rapid dissipation of the international crude oil market's risk premium.
What worries the market is the large rate of decline in short-term oil prices. In just two trading days this week, WTI and Brent crude oil futures contracts have both fallen by over 6%, sharply increasing the risk of breaching key levels in trading.
It is worth mentioning that, in the medium to long term, market expectations for oil prices are also very negative.
Due to the gradual dissipation of the risk premium driven by geopolitical risks in the Middle East, Citi has downgraded its Brent oil price forecast for the next 12 months to $60 per barrel.
In addition, both OPEC and the IEA have reduced their forecasts for global oil demand for the third consecutive month.
Earlier this month, OPEC released its monthly report data, indicating that the global crude oil demand growth rate in 2024 is expected to be 1.93 million barrels per day, down from the previous expectation of 2.03 million barrels per day. IEA, on the other hand, expects the global petroleum demand growth rate for this year to slow from the previous 0.903 million barrels per day to 0.862 million barrels per day, partly due to the slowdown in Chinese consumption putting pressure on the global outlook.
According to the report by Dong Dandan, an analyst at China Securities Co., Ltd. Futures, as of the week ending October 18, after four consecutive weeks of decline, the total U.S. petroleum inventories showed a cumulative increase for the first time, indicating a slight decrease in demand.
At the same time, market analysts also suggest that as the U.S. election approaches, policy directions will directly impact the energy market. Currently, the market is primarily awaiting new information for guidance. Overall, with limited market drivers, there is a strong sense of caution and observant sentiment.
