收入同环比大幅增长，PECVD 及薄膜新设备出货金额同比大幅增长：公司3Q24 实现营业收入10.11 亿元，YoY+44.67%，QoQ+27.14%，收入同环比持续增长主要原因为公司PECVD、ALD、SACVD、HDPCVD、高深宽比沟槽填充CVD 等系列产品量产规模不断扩大，同时多款基于新型设备平台（PF-300M 和PF-300T Plus）及新型反应腔（Supra-D）开发的工艺设备已实现收入确认。截至2024 年9 月30 日，公司存货金额达70.77 亿元，较2023 年末增长55.33%，主要原因为发出商品增加所致，根据公司三季报披露，2024 年1-9 月公司出货商品金额同比增长超过160%。3Q24 results are in line with our expectations
The company announced 3Q24 results: 3Q24 achieved operating income of 1.011 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.67%, and net profit to mother of 0.142 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.91% and a year-on-month increase of 19.87%, in line with expectations.
Development trends
Revenue increased significantly year-on-year, and shipments of new PECVD and film equipment increased significantly year-on-year: the company achieved operating income of 1.011 billion yuan, YoY +44.67%, and QoQ +27.14%. The main reason for the continued year-on-month increase in revenue was mainly due to the continuous expansion of the company's mass production scale of PECVD, ALD, SACVD, HDPCVD, and high-depth-to-width ratio groove-filled CVD products. At the same time, many models based on new equipment platforms (PF-300M and PF-300T Plus) and new reaction chambers ( The process equipment developed by (Supra-D) has achieved revenue recognition. As of September 30, 2024, the company's inventory amount reached 7.077 billion yuan, an increase of 55.33% over the end of 2023. The main reason was the increase in products issued. According to the company's three-quarter report, the amount of goods shipped by the company increased by more than 160% year-on-year from January to September 2024.
Gross margin declined month-on-month, and net profit to mother declined slightly year-on-year: the company's 3Q24 gross margin was 39%, QoQ-7.6ppt, mainly due to a significant increase in the revenue share of new products and processes, relatively high cost of new products and processes in the customer verification process, and a phased decline in gross margin; 3Q24 net profit to mother 0.142 billion yuan, YoY -2.91%, net profit attributable to mother was 14.1%, net profit excluding non-return mother was 0.046 billion yuan, YoY -58.79%, mainly due to the company's R&D This is due to a higher year-on-year increase in expenses.
Wafer bonding equipment has been industrialized and expanded to the field of advanced packaging: The company's hybrid bonding equipment includes the wafer-to-wafer bonding product Dione 300, the chip-to-wafer hybrid pre-bonding surface pretreatment product Propus, and the bonding and overlaying accuracy measurement product Crux 300. We believe that as the company's equipment layout in the wafer bonding field is gradually improved and commercialized and mass-produced, it is expected to benefit from rapid order growth in the advanced packaging field.
Profit forecasting and valuation
We keep the company's profit forecast unchanged. We expect the company to achieve operating income of 4.087/5.362 billion yuan in 2024/2025 and achieve net profit of 0.886/1.296 billion yuan. The current stock price corresponds to the company's 2024/2025 49.4/33.8x P/E. We used the forward P/E valuation method to value the company. Due to the upward trend in the semiconductor valuation center, we raised our 2027 valuation to 30x P/E and discounted the target price by 19.6% to 174.2 yuan, corresponding to the company's 2024/2025 54.7/37.4x P/E. There is still 10.8% room for an upward trend compared to the current stock price, maintaining an industry performance rating.
risks
Fab capital expenses have declined, new product development falls short of expectations, and supply risks for key components.
