业绩保持稳健增速，可转债靴子落地。前三季度公司业绩同比增速保持稳健，年化ROE 为14.4%（YoY-2.0pct）。拆分主营业务来看：1）投放规模增速稳定，净利差同比小幅下行。24Q3 末公司融资租赁资产余额（不含减值准备和应付利息）为1279 亿元（较上年末+12%，YoY+12%），同比增速略高于上半年。以资产负债表项目计算，短期借款、长期借款、拆入资金、应付债券合计值1022 亿元（较上年末+8%，YoY+11%）。24Q1-Q3公司公告披露净利差3.67%（YoY-0.02pct，较2023 年全年+0.06pct，较24H1-0.01pct）。Matters:
Jiangsu Golden Rental released its 2024 three-quarter report. In the first three quarters, it achieved operating income of 3.959 billion yuan (YoY +8.8%) and net profit of 2.227 billion yuan (YoY +9.1%). Total assets were 134.5 billion yuan, +12% compared to the beginning of the year, and net assets attributable to mother were 23.3 billion yuan, +31% compared to the beginning of the year. EPS (diluted) is 0.38 yuan, BVPS is 4.03 yuan.
Ping An's point of view:
Performance has maintained a steady growth rate, and convertible bonds have hit the ground. The year-on-year growth rate of the company's performance remained steady in the first three quarters, with an annualized ROE of 14.4% (Yoy-2.0pct). Looking at the main business split: 1) Investment scale growth rate was stable, and net profit margin declined slightly from year to year. The company's financial leasing asset balance at the end of 24Q3 (excluding impairment provisions and interest payable) was 127.9 billion yuan (+12% compared to the end of the previous year, YoY +12%), which is slightly higher than the year-on-year growth rate. Based on balance sheet projects, the total value of short-term loans, long-term loans, consolidated funds, and bonds payable was $102.2 billion (+8% compared to the end of the previous year, YoY +11%). The 24Q1-Q3 company announcement disclosed a net profit spread of 3.67% (YOY-0.02pct, +0.06pct for the full year of 2023, and 24H1-0.01pct).
2) The non-performing rate has remained stable, and credit impairment losses have declined. The company's defect rate at the end of 24Q3 was 0.92% (+0.01pct compared to the end of the previous year). 24Q1-Q3 accrued credit impairment losses of 0.55 billion yuan (YoY -1%), and provision coverage at the end of 24Q3 was 426.0% (YoY-9pct, compared to -22pct at the end of the previous year). 24Q1-Q3 operating and management expenses were 0.38 billion yuan (YoY +12%), accounting for 9.6% of revenue (YoY+0.3pct).
3) The strong redemption of convertible bonds ended, and the net assets returned to the mother were 24H1 +28%. On September 21, the company announced that it would redeem “tenancy convertible bonds” early and that the convertible bonds will be delisted on October 18. The total share capital of the company will increase from 4.37 billion yuan in 24H1 to 5.771 billion yuan, and is expected to increase to 5.793 billion yuan by the end of 24. The 24Q3 company's net assets were 23.3 billion yuan (YoY +36%, compared to 24H1 +28%).
Investment advice: Jiangsu Golden Rental has been deeply involved in the small and micro retail leasing business for a long time. The performance has grown steadily, and the dividend rate remains high. Taking into account the slight year-on-year acceleration in Q3 asset investment and the slight year-on-year decline in credit impairment accruals, the company slightly raised its 24-26 net profit forecast to 2.9/3.13/3.42 billion yuan (the original forecast was 2.84/3.06/3.35 billion yuan), with a year-on-year growth rate of 9.0%/8.0%/9.2%. The company's current stock price corresponds to about 1.3 times the 2024 PB, and the dividend ratio (TTM) is 4.6%, maintaining a “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: Regulations have been tightened beyond expectations; macroeconomic fluctuations have been large; yield on interest-bearing assets has declined more than expected or financing costs have risen above expectations; asset quality has fluctuated beyond expectations; and strategy implementation falls short of expectations.
