24 年7-8 月新签11.33 亿元，主要系8 月22 日中标京东方第8.6 代AMOLED生产线项目洁净工程（P2 标段），金额7.13 亿元，彰显公司在面板行业竞争优势，随着半导体国产替代持续投入、面板行业陆续启动OLED 产线投资，公司有望获得较好弹性。The company released three quarterly reports: 9M24 achieved revenue of 3.838 billion yuan, and achieved net profit of 0.159 billion yuan compared to the same period, +5.94% year over year, of which 24Q3 achieved revenue of 1.336 billion yuan, +22.28% year over year, net profit to mother of 0.059 billion yuan, +3.87% year over year, slightly higher than our expectations (0.05 billion yuan). On the one hand, the company strengthened project management, and gross margin recovered month-on-month, and on the other hand, revenue Growth has slowed, projects have gradually entered the settlement and repayment period, and the impact of impairment has weakened, and the net interest rate to the mother has increased sequentially due to the overall impact. We believe that Q4 is expected to continue this trend and maintain the “buy” rating.
The expense ratio continued to decline, and the impairment effect of the increase in contract assets increased 9M24's comprehensive gross profit margin by 10.10%, -2.55pct year on year, 11.24% year on year 24Q3, -0.50pct year on year, and +1.85pct month-on-month. The cost ratio for the 9M24 period was -0.05pct to 3.08%, of which the sales/management/R&D/finance ratio was -0.12/-0.10/-0.19/+0.35pct year-on-year. Since '24, the company's revenue growth rate has been slowing down quarter by quarter. Contract assets at the end of 24Q3 were +0.342 billion yuan year on year, and -0.106 billion yuan month-on-month. The impact of impairment gradually weakened. 9M24 impairment expenses accounted for -0.28 pct of revenue year over year, and 24Q3 accounted for -1.04 pct year on year. Under the combined influence, 9M24's net profit margin was 4.13%, -1.78pct year over year, 4.43% in 24Q3, -0.79pct year on year, and +1.20pct month-on-month. The company's 9M24 net cash from operating activities was -0.533 billion yuan, -0.222 billion yuan year on year, 76.4%/90.2% of receipt and payment ratio, and -5.45/ -3.74 pct year on year.
It won BOE's 0.71 billion bid, highlighting the competitive advantage of the panel industry. 24H1 signed a new 1.88 billion yuan, -24.4% year over year, and 2.25 billion yuan of on-hand orders at the end of the period, -21.5% compared to the same period.
A new contract of 1.133 billion yuan was signed in July-August '24, mainly for BOE's 8.6th generation AMOLED production line project clean project (P2 section) on August 22, with an amount of 0.713 billion yuan, demonstrating the company's competitive advantage in the panel industry. As domestic semiconductor substitution continues to invest and the panel industry starts investing in OLED production lines one after another, the company is expected to gain good flexibility.
Profit forecasting and valuation
We maintained the company's 24-26 net profit forecast of 0.251/0.297/0.343 billion yuan. Comparable to the company's 25-year Wind forecast, the PE is 24x. Considering that compared to its peers, the company is expected to also benefit from accelerated semiconductor localization and a new round of capital expenditure cycles in the panel industry. However, domestic competition intensified the pressure on profit margins and approved the company's 25-year 24xPE with a target price of 13.52 yuan (previous value of 11.90 yuan), maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: The capital expenditure of the domestic semiconductor industry fell short of expectations; the gross margin of the semiconductor clean room engineering business declined more than expected; the company's new orders or conversions fell short of expectations.
