费用率保持稳定，公允价值变动/信用减值拖累净利表现公司Q3 不含研发的期间费用率为14.0%，同/环比+1.2/-0.2pct，其中销售/管理/财务费用率分别为8.6%/4.2%/1.3%；研发费用率为8.0%，同/环比+0.2/-2.6pct，费用率基本保持稳健。公司Q3 公允价值变动与信用减值损失合计亏损0.24 亿元，而23Q3 二者合计盈利0.5 亿元，对Q3 净利同比产生了一定影响。The company announced 24Q3 results: 24Q3 revenue of 0.93 billion yuan, -13.4% year on month, +11.6% month on month; net profit to mother 0.099 billion yuan, -50.4% year on month, -0.9% month on month; deducted non-net profit of 0.1 billion yuan, -33.1% year on year and 8.2% month on month. The large year-on-year decline in the company's Q3 performance is related to the high base for the same period last year. There was a month-on-month upward trend. The main business, NEV electronic control revenue, was resilient, and overseas business was developing smoothly. We expect the company's 25-year results to continue to recover and maintain a “buy” rating.
New energy electronic control revenue increased month-on-month, and engineering transmission revenue was under pressure
Q3 New Energy Electronic Control's revenue was 0.75 billion, -15.1% year over year (mainly due to the higher base for the same period last year), with a year-on-month increase of 18.8%, gross profit margin of 32.5%, or -2.2/+0.4pct month-on-month. It showed strong resilience against the backdrop of slowing downstream wind power demand growth, intensifying industrial chain competition, and falling product prices. Q3 The company's engineering transmission business had revenue of 0.11 billion yuan, -8.5% year-on-month, -19.3% month-on-month, gross profit margin of 44.6%, or +2.3/5.5 pct month-on-month. This business had a large individual quota, confirming that the revenue rhythm had an impact on revenue fluctuations in a single quarter, and gross margin increased steadily.
The cost rate remained stable, and changes in fair value and credit impairment dragged down the company's net profit performance in Q3, the cost rate for the period excluding R&D was 14.0%, +1.2/-0.2pct, with sales/management/finance expenses ratios of 8.6%/4.2%/1.3%, respectively; the R&D expense ratio was 8.0%, +0.2/-2.6 pct month-on-month, and the cost ratio remained stable. The company's Q3 fair value changes and credit impairment losses combined lost 0.024 billion yuan, while 23Q3 had a combined profit of 0.05 billion yuan, which had a year-on-year impact on Q3 net profit.
Overseas business development was smooth, and gross margin increased year-on-month
The company achieved overseas revenue of 0.08 billion yuan in 24Q3, a year-on-year increase of 104.1% and a month-on-month increase of 29.6%, achieving significant growth. Q3 The gross profit margin of the overseas business was 55.2%, 22.2% higher than the domestic business, +1.9pct year on year, and +7.1% month-on-month, with a steady increase on the basis of high gross profit. The company's overseas business is developing smoothly. It has increased the number of service points set up in the Netherlands, Brazil, South Korea, Turkey, Vietnam, Pakistan, etc., and has been recognized by overseas customers for its comprehensive service and rapid response speed.
Profit forecasting and valuation
We maintain the company's 24-26 net profit forecast of 0.485/0.566/0.691 billion yuan. We refer to the comparable company's 25-year Wind, which is a consistent estimate of 20 times PE. Considering that the company's size is slightly smaller than the comparable company, but the main business shows strong resilience, and overseas markets continue to expand, we give the company an 18-fold PE valuation over 25 years, with a target price of 23 yuan (previous value of 21.8 yuan), maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: New energy installed capacity falls short of expectations; subsidies fall short of expectations; industry competition intensifies.
