下调盈利预测 ，维持“增持”评级。24Q3公司业绩受大额信用减值影响低于预期，其中单项计提因出售节能业务项下子公司股权形成的转让价款和子公司出表前往来款的坏帐准备6000 万元，按公司与欠款方协议约定，我们预估约4000 万元将在24Q4 完成冲回。因此小幅下调公司24-26 年的盈利预测。预计公司24-26 年归母净利润为9.23/10.83/12.50 亿元（ 原9.36/11.20/13.01 亿元）， 同比+25%/17%/15%。参考从家电零部件转型新能源赛道企业作为可比公司，给予24 年20X PE，下调目标价至17.4 元。Introduction to this report:
The company's 24Q3 profit in a single quarter was pressured by impairment. Subsequent benefits from trade-in catalyzed downstream demand and potential impairment charges were recovered, and revenue and profit are expected to gradually improve upward.
Key points of investment:
The profit forecast was lowered and the “gain” rating was maintained. 24Q3's performance fell short of expectations due to large credit impairment. Among them, individual charges were 60 million yuan due to the sale of the subsidiary's shares under the energy saving business and the subsidiary's bad debt preparation. According to the agreement between the company and the debtor, we estimate that about 40 million yuan will be recovered in 24Q4. As a result, the company slightly lowered its 24-26 profit forecast. The company's net profit for 24-26 is expected to be 0.923/1.083/1.25 billion yuan (previously 0.936/1.12/1.301 billion yuan), +25%/17%/15% year-on-year. Referring to the transformation from home appliance components to new energy track companies as comparable companies, they were given 20X PE for 24 years, and the target price was lowered to 17.4 yuan.
24Q3 results fell short of expectations. The company achieved operating income of 9.336 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, +10.54% year on year, net profit of 0.649 billion yuan, or +20.1% year on year; of these, 2024 Q3 achieved operating income of 2.99 billion yuan, +4.09% year on year, and net profit to mother 0.175 billion yuan, or -17.18% year on year.
The refrigeration equipment is under pressure, and the auto zero business is gradually being scaled up. Splitting 24Q3, we expect: 1) The refrigeration equipment business weakens in line with industry demand performance, and the business base is high during the same period. 24Q3 revenue is expected to decline significantly year-on-year, which is the main source of pressure for the overall revenue side growth rate to slow significantly; 2) The company's downstream demand for valves decelerates month-on-month, and the refrigeration parts business of 24Q3 is expected to grow by about 10%. It is expected that 24Q4 will benefit from the trade-in policy to focus on driving demand for downstream air conditioning, OEMs increase production schedules, and the growth rate of the company's core refrigeration parts business is expected to increase month-on-month; 3) Automotive thermal management: We expect 24Q3 business revenue to be +40 to 45% year on year, but the target set at the beginning of the year is lower. In September '24, the company's auto parts business achieved monthly shipments exceeding 100 million, and delivery volume increased significantly. The 24Q4 business growth rate is expected to increase.
Impairment affects profit. 2024Q3 gross margin was 18.57%, -0.84pct year on year, net margin was 5.76%, -1.58pct year on year. The decline in gross margin in a single quarter was mainly due to the fact that Q3 cold mixing bids had a certain price impact, while the share of refrigeration equipment as a relatively high-margin business declined. The decline in profit in 24Q3 was mainly due to transfer prices formed from the sale of subsidiary shares under the energy saving business and bad debt provisions of 60 million yuan submitted by the subsidiary. Excluding the effects of impairment, the 24Q3 company's net operating profit increased by about 11%, and the net interest rate was steady year-on-month.
Risk warning: Demand-driven effects in the home space industry fell short of expectations. Weakening demand for conduction refrigeration components and increased competition in the NEV industry led to lower profit margins for transmission parts companies
