公司单季度盈利连续三个季度环比好转、但Q3 盈利仍同比下滑，或主要系生鲜品等产品售价下滑、叠加产能爬坡导致生鲜品业务亏损较多带来。拆分来看，我们估算24Q3 公司调理品业务或盈利约2000~5000 万元、而生鲜品业务或亏损较明显。结合公司24Q3 生鲜品业务收入同比+8.38%、调理品业务收入基本持平来看，我们估计公司生鲜品销量或有较为明显的增加、调理品销量或亦稳中有增；生鲜品业务亏损明显或主要系售价下跌，同时公司新投产的生鲜产能仍处于爬坡期、利用率不高导致。若后续产品价格回暖、生鲜产能利用率逐步提升，公司盈利有望录得明显好转。Chunxue Foods released its three-quarter report: Q3 achieved revenue of 0.641 billion yuan (yoy -10.98%, qoq +0.91%) and net profit of 6.7357 million yuan (yoy -7.23%, qoq +314.76%). Q1-Q3 2024 achieved revenue of 1.804 billion yuan (yoy -13.93%) and net profit of 2.3845 million yuan (yoy -88.64%) to mother.
The decline in the company's profit is mainly due to falling sales prices for fresh products, and at the same time, due to the fact that some fresh production capacity is still climbing, leading to many losses in the fresh food business. Looking ahead to the future market, on the supply side, judging from the production capacity of white feather broiler ancestors and parent surrogate chickens monitored by the Association, we expect that the supply of white feather broiler may still be sufficient; on the demand side, demand for white feather broiler products is relatively strong correlated with food and beverage consumption. We expect subsequent consumption recovery to drive an increase in demand for white feather chicken, which in turn will drive the price of white feather chicken to bottom out for a long period of time and achieve a reverse upward trend. At the same time, we believe that Chunxue may have shown stronger profitability by benefiting from its stable operating advantages in the prepared products business and the gradual increase in the utilization rate of fresh product production capacity. Maintain a “buy” rating.
Q3 Profit declined year-on-year, and the fresh food business was significantly dragged down
The company's profit in a single quarter improved month-on-month for three consecutive quarters, but Q3 profit declined year-on-year, or mainly due to falling sales prices for fresh products and a rise in combined production capacity, which led to many losses in the fresh products business. Looking at the breakdown, we estimate that the 24Q3 company's prepared products business may have a profit of about 2000 to 50 million yuan, while the fresh products business may have a significant loss. Taking into account the company's 24Q3 fresh products business revenue of +8.38% compared to the same period, we estimate that the company's fresh product sales may have increased significantly, and that there may also be a steady increase in prepared product sales; fresh food business losses are obvious or mainly due to falling sales prices. At the same time, the company's newly put into production fresh production capacity is still climbing and the utilization rate is not high. If the price of products picks up and the utilization rate of fresh production capacity gradually increases, the company's profit is expected to improve significantly.
Continue to promote brand building and gradually release fund-raising production capacity
Chunxue Foods is one of the few companies that mainly produces and sells chicken preparations. The company continues to make efforts in terms of brands and channels, and is expected to achieve significant growth in performance with the help of the gradual release of new production capacity. In terms of brand, the company has established a certain level of brand awareness both online and offline. Offline, 80% of its products have entered the domestic TOP20 supermarket system, and the “Fresh” brand jointly created online and with JD has been in the TOP1 fresh chicken sales volume in JD for six consecutive years. In terms of channels, the company adopted a simultaneous development strategy for domestic and foreign markets, and achieved full coverage of B-side and C-side users through a multi-level sales channel layout. In terms of production capacity, production and sales of prepared products are expected to increase as the company gradually releases new production capacity.
Profit forecasting and valuation
We maintain our profit forecast. The company's net profit for 2024/25/26 is estimated to be 0.024/0.179/0.247 billion yuan, and the corresponding BVPS is 5.45/6.35/7.58 yuan. Referring to the comparable company Wind in 2025, the consistent expectation of 1.5x PB. Considering that Chunxue Food's prepared products business has a relatively large share, profit level and stability, or is superior to traditional white feather chicken breeding companies, we gave Chunxue Foods 1.7 times PB in 2025, corresponding to a target price of 10.80 yuan, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: chicken price rise/cost falling short of expectations, sudden large-scale bird flu outbreaks, etc.
