国内收入稳健增长，海外收入快速增长。公司前三季度国内市场收入同比+13.60%，国内市场受到DRG和集采等压制，公司增长仍然具备韧性，保持稳健增长趋势；海外市场收入同比+25.16%，保持快速增长趋势。分产品种类来看，公司前三季度试剂收入同比+17.93%，试剂不断放量增长；仪器类收入同比+16.27%，装机带动仪器收入增长，同时为后续试剂放量奠定基础。从装机来看，公司前三季度国内外市场全自动发光仪器MAGLUMI X8 实现销售/装机795台，截至三季度末累计销售/装机达3448台；此外，公司新产品SATLARS T8 流水线截至Q3末已完成装机/销售共30条，反映了上述产品已获得了市场认可。Matters:
The company achieved operating income of 3.414 billion yuan in the first three quarters, +17.41% year-on-year, realized net profit of 1.384 billion yuan, or +16.59% year-on-year, and realized net profit of 1.331 billion yuan after deduction, or +20.80% year-on-year. Looking at the third quarter of a single quarter, the company achieved operating income of 1.203 billion yuan, a net profit of 0.48 billion yuan, a net profit of 0.48 billion yuan, or +10.02% year-on-year, and realized net profit of 0.463 billion yuan after deduction, or +11.62% year-on-year.
Ping An's point of view:
Domestic revenue is growing steadily, and overseas revenue is growing rapidly. The company's domestic market revenue in the first three quarters was +13.60%. The domestic market was suppressed by DRG and procurement, etc., and the company's growth was still resilient and maintained a steady growth trend; overseas market revenue was +25.16% year-on-year, maintaining a rapid growth trend. By product type, the company's reagent revenue in the first three quarters was +17.93%, and reagent volume continued to grow; instrument revenue was +16.27% year-on-year, driving instrument revenue growth and laying the foundation for subsequent reagent releases. In terms of installation, the company's fully automatic light-emitting instrument MAGLUMI X8 achieved sales and installation of 795 units in domestic and foreign markets in the first three quarters, with a cumulative total of 3,448 units sold and installed by the end of the third quarter; in addition, the company's new product SATLARS T8 assembly line had completed a total of 30 installations/sales by the end of Q3, reflecting that the above products had received market recognition.
The quality of operations is steady, and the profit side is improving. The Q3 company achieved a gross profit margin of 71.85% (-2.51pp). The slight year-on-year decline is expected mainly due to structural changes at home and abroad and reagent instruments. Expenses remained stable during the period. The Q3 sales expense ratio was 15.7% (+0.55pp), the Q3 management expense ratio was 2.6% (-0.58pp), and the Q3 R&D expense ratio was 10.2% (+0.71pp). The company continued to increase sales and R&D investment, maintain market and product competitiveness, and maintain stable overall business quality.
The company's domestic and international two-wheel drive development is expected to maintain a sustainable growth trend. In the domestic market, the company has seized the opportunity of collection to continuously increase its share. Judging from the business situation in the first half of 2024, infectious diseases and sex hormones covered by the Anhui Interprovincial Alliance have clearly shown a trend of accelerated substitution. Its sales revenue is significantly faster than the overall domestic reagent growth rate, and the company will also respond positively as always. It is expected that the new round of collection will help the company achieve a rapid increase in market share of tenders and jiagong. In overseas markets, the company has gradually segmented the market, implemented a regionalized management model, and deepened overseas localization operations to help the overseas business move to a new stage. Currently, the company has completed the establishment of 11 overseas subsidiaries. Judging from business results, in recent years, the overseas instrument sales structure has continued to be optimized, the share of reagent sales has steadily increased, helping profitability continue to increase, and there is broad scope for long-term development.
Maintain a “Recommended” rating. The company focuses on the field of in vitro diagnosis, has a firm development strategy, continues to expand domestic and overseas markets, and two-wheel drive continues to open up room for growth. According to the company's three-quarter report, the 2024-2026 EPS is 2.53, 3.25, and 4.09 yuan (the original 2024-2026 forecast was 2.59, 3.24, 3.95 yuan). Considering that the company's installed capacity has remained strong in recent years and the proportion of medium to large machines has continued to increase, it is expected to continue to drive reagent release and maintain the “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: 1) Product sales fall short of expectations; 2) installation promotion falls short of expectations; 3) risks such as policy impact.
