资产规模增长稳健。公司3Q24 末总资产、贷款、存款分别同比+7.3%、+8.0%、+6.7%，季节环比+0.8%、+0.7%、+2.5%。公司3Q24 单季新增贷款47 亿元，其中企业贷款新增48 亿元，贴现贷款减少8 亿元，个人贷款新增7 亿元，个人贷款需求较上半年有所改善。存款方面，公司3Q24 末对公活期、对公定期、储蓄活期、储蓄定期存款分别同比-5.2%、+0.5%、+8.1%、+17.1%，企业对公活期存款存在流失现象，活期存款占比降至29.3%。3Q24 results are basically in line with our expectations
Bank of Guiyang announced 3Q24 results: 1-3Q24 revenue decreased 4.4% year on year, net profit to mother decreased 6.8% year on year; 3Q24 single quarter revenue decreased 5.3% year on year, and net profit to mother decreased 6.3% year on year; basically in line with our expectations.
Development trends
Asset size is growing steadily. The company's total assets, loans and deposits at the end of 3Q24 were +7.3%, +8.0%, and +6.7%, respectively, and +0.8%, +0.7%, and +2.5% from quarter to quarter. The company added 4.7 billion yuan in loans in a single quarter in 3Q24, including corporate loans increased by 4.8 billion yuan, discounted loans decreased by 0.8 billion yuan, and personal loans increased by 0.7 billion yuan. Demand for personal loans improved compared to the first half of the year. In terms of deposits, at the end of 3Q24, the company had a year-on-year ratio of -5.2%, +0.5%, +8.1%, and +17.1% for fixed term savings accounts, respectively. There was a loss of corporate demand deposits, and the share of current deposits dropped to 29.3%.
Net interest spreads for the single quarter were stable month-on-month. The company disclosed a net interest spread of 1.80% on the cumulative daily balance of 1-3Q24, down 1 bps from the level of the first half of the year, which is relatively stable. We calculated 3Q24 net interest spread, return on interest-bearing assets, and interest-paying debt cost ratios of 1.91%, 4.48%, and 2.38%, respectively, -34 bps, -42 bps, and -27 bps year-on-year, and +3bp, -4bp, and +1bp compared to the previous month. At the end of 3Q24, the company's debt-side deposits accounted for 65.8%, up 1.2ppt month-on-month, while interbank debt and payable bonds decreased by 0.2ppt and 0.9ppt, respectively.
3Q24's non-interest revenue increased 103.5% year over year, with net handling fee revenue up 180.5% year over year, and other non-interest income up 95.2% year over year. Investment income from other non-interest income in 3Q24 increased 116.3% year over year, accounting for 17% from 8% in the same period last year.
Write-offs have intensified, and the generation of defects has increased. The defect rate at the end of 3Q24 was 1.57%, down 5 bps from month to month; the attention rate was 3.87%, up 42 bps from month to month; we estimated that the net generation rate of bad defects after write-off in a single quarter was 1.89%, up year on year; provision coverage rate was 262.5%, up 4.7 ppt from month to month.
Profit forecasting and valuation
Keep profit forecasts unchanged. The current stock price corresponds to 0.4 times the 2024E net market ratio and 0.3 times the 2025E net market ratio. Maintaining a neutral rating, we raised our target price by 23.0% to 6.68 yuan, which corresponds to 0.4 times the 2024E net market ratio and 0.4 times the 2025E net market ratio. There is 10.6% upside compared to the current stock price.
risks
Asset risk fell short of expectations, and regional credit demand fell short of expectations.
