2024Q1-3's performance reached a record high, and Q4 fluorite prices are expected to rise sharply, maintaining the “buy” rating company 2024Q1-3 to achieve revenue of 1.83 billion yuan, an increase of 58.50% year on year; achieving net profit of 0.25 billion yuan to mother, an increase of 1.70% year on year. The company's 2024Q1-3 performance reached a record high for the same period. Among them, in Q3, the company achieved revenue of 0.711 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.39%; net profit to mother was 0.083 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 30.88%. The main causes of Q3 revenue growth and profit decline: (1) The revenue growth was mainly due to the merger of Jinebo Fluorine Chemical; (2) The profit portion of the fluorine chemical project was reflected in the investment income of Baogang Jinshi, and all of Jinebo's operating income was included in the consolidated report, but net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was included in the company's equity ratio of 43% and 51% in Baogang Jinshi and Jinebo; (3) The Jiangxi Jinling Project changed from a profit of 18 million (equity) last year; (4) Changshan Jinshi and other Jinshi stopped production The impact of technical reforms in mines. We maintain the company's profit forecast. The company's net profit for 2024-2026 is 0.47, 0.742, and 0.913 billion yuan respectively, and EPS is 0.78, 1.22, and 1.51 yuan respectively. The current stock price corresponds to PE of 33.8, 21.6, and 17.4 times, respectively. We are optimistic about the continuation and value revaluation of the company's fluorite market, and maintain a “buy” rating.

The company's various projects are progressing smoothly, and Q4 fluorite prices are expected to rise sharply. Mid-term dividends will enhance shareholders' returns to 2024Q1-3. The operating conditions of the company's various projects: (1) Single fluorite mine: a single mine produces about 0.28 million tons of fluorite and sells about 0.25 million tons. (2) Baotou's “integrated selection” project: The Baogang Jinshi Mineral Processing Project produced a total of about 0.4 million tons of fluorite powder, which was sold by Jinebo Company about 0.14 million tons; the Jin'e Fluorine Chemical Project produced 0.085 million tons of anhydrous hydrogen fluoride and sold 0.0825 million tons. (3) Jinling, Jiangxi produces about 0.02 million tons of lepidomite concentrate. The company's Q4 business forecast: (1) The production and sales volume of the main products in Q4 is expected to increase month-on-month. Among them, the fluorite mine is planned to produce 0.12 million tons and 0.05 million tons of anhydrous hydrogen fluoride (required for aluminum fluoride). (2) The price of the company's single fluorite mine concentrate (acid grade fluorite powder and high-grade fluorite block ore) products without tax in the first three quarters was 2,848 yuan/ton, of which the Q3 price without tax was 2,835 yuan/ton. It is expected that the price of acid grade fluorite powder in Q4 will rise significantly from month to month. (3) The Mongolian project carried out mine divestment during construction. [Note: The company's Q4 business and market outlook is only estimated or predicted by the company itself and does not constitute a real commitment to investors, please be aware of investment risks]. In addition, the company plans to pay an interim dividend. It plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.00 yuan (tax included) to all shareholders for every 10 shares. The total cash dividend this time accounts for 23.96% of the company's net profit from 2024Q1-3.

Risk warning: Project progress fell short of expectations, product prices fell sharply, and downstream demand fell short of expectations.