稼动率高位运行，Q3 毛利率转正。公司2024Q3 实现营收16.68 亿元，环比+9.25%；归母净利润-2.13 亿元，环比减亏6.66%；EBITDA5.36 亿元，环比-16.36%；毛利率6.16%，环比+8.25pct。新能源车及消费市场需求复苏，公司8 英寸硅基产线稼动率饱满；SiC 晶圆产线、12英寸硅基晶圆产线及对应模组产线产能及稼动率显著提升。公司8 英寸晶圆一期生产线主要生产设备走出折旧周期，新增产线固定资产投资额及其折旧摊销费用逐步放缓，毛利水平和盈利能力有望改善。Incidents:
Xinlian Integrated released its 2024 Q3 report. The company achieved revenue of 4.547 billion yuan in the first three quarters, +18.68% year on year; net profit to mother of -0.684 billion yuan, a year-on-year loss reduction of 49.73%; net profit not attributable to mother of -1.074 billion yuan, a year-on-year reduction of 34.26%.
Comment:
The operating rate was high, and the gross margin was positive in Q3. In 2024Q3, the company achieved revenue of 1.668 billion yuan, +9.25% month-on-month; net profit to mother -0.213 billion yuan, reducing losses 6.66% month-on-month; EBITDA 0.536 billion yuan, -16.36% month-on-month; and gross profit margin of 6.16%, +8.25pct month-on-month. Demand in the NEV and consumer markets has recovered, and the operating rate of the company's 8-inch silicon-based production line is full; the production capacity and operating rate of SiC wafer production lines, 12-inch silicon-based wafer production lines and corresponding module production lines have increased significantly. The main production equipment of the company's 8-inch wafer phase 1 production line is out of the depreciation cycle. The amount of fixed asset investment in the new production line and its depreciation and amortization expenses are gradually slowing down, and gross profit levels and profitability are expected to improve.
It is proposed to acquire additional minority shares in Xinlian Yuezhou to improve operational efficiency. Since 2023, the shipment volume of the 6-inch SiC MOSFET with the main vehicle drive in Xinlian has remained the highest in China, and the core technical parameters of the product are comparable to the leading international level; in April 2024, the Xinlian Yuezhou 8-inch SiC MOSFET project was successfully completed. Meanwhile, the company's vehicle regulations and industrial control products already cover major NEV and wind and solar energy storage terminal customers, and the two will have a synergistic effect on SiC MOSFET products. The company will accelerate the construction of the first 8-inch SiC MOSFET production line in China to achieve early mass production within 2025. In addition, the company and Xinlian's 8-inch silicon-based wafer production line in Vietnam will be merged and managed in an integrated manner, with a total production capacity of 0.17 million wafers per month.
The three core growth curves are clear, and a significant increase in revenue can be expected. In addition to the company's original core business, the company continues to develop in the SiC and analog IC fields as two additional growth directions. At present, the company's new business is developing smoothly, SiC MOSFET products have been put into batch production, and the integrated process platform has been targeted by many domestic car companies and Tier 1 projects.
Profit forecast and investment advice: We expect the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 6.49/8.04/9.96 billion yuan, and net profit to mother of -0.88/-0.44/0.15 billion yuan, respectively, and corresponding PB of 2.79/2.89/2.86, respectively. Covered for the first time, a “gain” rating was given.
Risk warning: recovery falls short of expectations; customer imports fall short of expectations; production capacity release falls short of expectations
