服务器PCB：算力是自动驾驶的核心，特斯拉持续推进其算力中心进度。公司作为特斯拉的核心供应商，也为其供应算力用PCB，前期特斯拉的Dojo 芯片受台积电InFO 良率影响产出偏慢，目前台积电工艺良率有提升迹象，Dojo 芯片产出加速，特斯拉将可能加大Dojo 芯片在其算力中心的使用，替代其他厂商加速器。据特斯拉规划，其算力中心预计于24Q4 总规模算力达到100 EFLOPS，公司作为特斯拉Dojo 用PCB 的主要供应商，将有望随特斯拉算力提升带动业绩成长。Report highlights
On October 28, the company announced 2024Q1-Q3 results. 24Q1-Q3 revenue achieved 3.675 billion yuan (YoY +9.75%), net profit to mother 0.483 billion yuan (YoY +28.97%), gross margin and net margin of 23.55% and 12.54%, respectively. In the third quarter, the company achieved revenue of 1.28 billion yuan (YoY +6.82%, QoQ -1.73%), net profit to mother of 0.18 billion yuan (YoY +0.95%, QoQ -7.20%), and gross margin and net margin were 25.03% and 13.53%, respectively.
Vehicle PCB: The company has been deeply involved in the automotive field for many years, has deep technical accumulation, and has become Tesla's core PCB supplier. 24Q3 Tesla car sales increased month-on-month, close to historic highs, and inventory was effectively digested. In addition, we expect that the increase in Q3 sales will have a good effect on boosting Q4 sales, increase momentum, and further increase demand for automotive PCBs. It is expected that the company's Q4 performance will increase significantly. At the same time, Tesla continues to advance driverless robotaxi, and is expected to be the first to launch advanced FSD autonomous driving services in China and Europe in 25Q1. Tesla is expected to use its existing vehicles to achieve autonomous driving next year, which is expected to drive Tesla's vehicle sales increase, boost the company's automotive PCB usage demand, and combine Tesla to drive the layout of other NEV manufacturers in the driverless field. The company is expected to enter the industry chain of other NEV manufacturers. It is expected that the company will perform well in 25 years.
Server PCB: Computing power is the core of autonomous driving, and Tesla continues to advance the progress of its computing power center. As Tesla's core supplier, the company also supplies PCBs for computing power. Earlier, Tesla's Dojo chips were slow to produce due to TSMC's InFO yield. Currently, TSMC's process yield is showing signs of improvement. Dojo chip production is accelerating. Tesla may increase the use of Dojo chips in its computing power center to replace accelerators from other manufacturers. According to Tesla's plan, its computing power center is expected to reach 100 EFLOPS in 24Q4. As the main supplier of PCBs used by Tesla Dojo, the company is expected to drive performance growth as Tesla's computing power increases.
We predict that the company's net profit for 24-25 will be 0.672/0.874 billion yuan. In a neutral/upward situation, the company will be given a 24/27x valuation, corresponding to a target price of 32/36 yuan/share, respectively, to maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
Upside risks: downstream prosperity accelerates; downstream customer projects progress; company production capacity accelerates to release downside risks: raw material costs and prices increase; customer project progress falls short of expectations; risk of dilution of convertible debt-for-equity swaps
