产品结构变化导致公司毛利率下滑，费用控制能力依旧优秀公司2024 年Q3 的综合毛利率为29.02%，同比-3.62 pct，环比-0.92 pct，同环比均有所下滑，主要由于低毛利率气囊&方向盘业务占比的提升，以及主机厂年降。公司2024年Q3 的期间费用率为12.16%，同比+0.39 pct，环比+0.41 pct，同环比基本持平，费用控制能力依旧优秀，其中研发费用增加较多主要由于新研发项目增加。公司2024 年Q3 的归母净利润为0.67 亿元，同比+24.67%，环比+8.20%。Incident: On October 28, Songwon Co., Ltd. released its 2024 three-quarter report, achieving revenue of 1.31 billion yuan, +60.80% year over year; net profit to mother of 0.191 billion yuan, +62.87% year over year.
Independent customer projects are gradually being mass-produced, and the company's revenue is growing rapidly:
New airbag & steering wheel projects are gradually being rolled out, and the company's revenue continues to grow rapidly. The company achieved revenue of 0.507 billion yuan in Q3 2024, +47.08% year over month, and maintained rapid year-on-month growth, mainly due to: 1) sales growth of core customers Chery and Geely, and the expansion of new customers such as BYD and Ideal led to seat belt business growth. In Q3 2024, Chery and Geely's sales volume was 0.6166 and 0.496 million units, respectively, +27.72%, 9.97% YoY, +14.84%, 7.94% month-on-month; 2) New airbag & steering wheel Business is expanding at an accelerated pace. Currently, supporting models include Wuling Bingo/Starbucks, Geely Emperor/Panda/Galaxy, Chery Jetstar Dasheng/Jietu Traveler/iCar 03, Ideal L6, Nezha L, etc.
Changes in the product structure led to a decline in the company's gross margin. The company's overall gross margin in 2024 Q3 was 29.02%, -3.62 pct year over year, and -0.92 pct month-on-month, all declining month-on-month, mainly due to the increase in the share of the low gross margin airbag & steering wheel business and the annual decline of OEMs. The company's expense ratio for the 2024 Q3 period was 12.16%, +0.39 pct year over month, and +0.41 pct month over month. It was basically the same as the same month on month, and its cost control ability was still excellent. Among them, the increase in R&D expenses was mainly due to the increase in new R&D projects. The company's net profit for Q3 2024 was 0.067 billion yuan, +24.67% YoY and +8.20% YoY.
The company's accounts receivable at the end of the third quarter of 2024 were $0.84 billion, an increase of 29.22% over the end of 2023.
The company's credit impairment losses and asset impairment losses in the first three quarters were 9.9657 and 8.8627 million yuan, +92.85% and 64.05%, respectively, respectively, mainly due to accounts receivable accrual and inventory accrual.
With the triple resonance of volume, price and profit, the company is expected to continue to grow at a high rate in the future:
1) Volume: Actively expand and deepen cooperation with autonomous and overseas customers. The company continues to deepen cooperation with core customers such as Chery Geely, Wuling, and Great Wall, and continues to expand new energy customers. At present, it has successfully expanded independent customers such as BYD, NIO, Ideal, Hezhong, and Zero Run, and has broken through foreign customers for the first time, obtained a fixed position for the F platform global vehicle seat belt project for European S customers, and is developing passenger airbags for S customers, as well as developing high-travel preload terminal device assemblies for a European customer.
2) Price: The product structure continues to be optimized, and the value of bicycles is gradually increasing. The company's share of high-performance seat belt sales gradually increased. The average price of seat belt assembly products reached 55.41 yuan/piece in 2023, +10.20%; the company expanded new products airbags and steering wheels, and transformed into passive safety integrated supply. Compared with a single seat belt, the product's bicycle value is higher.
3) Profit: Continue to promote self-manufacturing of parts, and gross margin is expected to continue to increase. The company plans to build a new 0.012 million meter ribbon and 2 million bag production capacity in Chaohu, Anhui; in addition, the company has also set up an electronic and electrical division to increase investment in the development of electronic control products such as airbag controllers (ACU).
Investment advice: Maintain a “buy-A” rating. We expect the company's gross profit from 2024 to 2026 to be 0.27/0.36/0.5 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to the current market value, and PE is 26.3/19.5/14.2 times.
We gave the company 30 times PE in 2024, with a target price of 36 yuan/share for 6 months.
Risk warning: management risks due to scale expansion; product quality control risks.
