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三只松鼠(300783):改革效果如期兑现 开启投资并购之路

Three Squirrels (300783): The results of the reform were realized as scheduled, and the path of investment and mergers and acquisitions began

swhy Research ·  Oct 29

Incident: The company released its 2024 three-quarter report. During the reporting period, it achieved revenue of 7.169 billion yuan, an increase of 56.46%; realized net profit to mother of 0.341 billion, an increase of 101.15%; and realized deducted non-net profit of 0.267 billion, an increase of 211.55%. It is estimated that 24Q3 achieved revenue of 2.095 billion, an increase of 24.03%; realized net profit of 0.052 billion yuan, an increase of 221.89%; realized deducted non-net profit of 0.038 billion, an increase of 210.13%. Revenue and profits are in line with expectations.

Investment rating and valuation: Considering the company's size effect, the overall rate is continuously optimized, and profit forecasts are raised to predict that the company will achieve net profit of 0.402, 0.515, and 0.616 billion yuan in 24-26 (0.356, 0.463, 0.592 billion yuan before 24-26), with year-on-year growth rates of 83%, 28%, and 20%, corresponding to EPS of 1.00, 1.29, and 1.54 yuan (0.89, 1.15, 1.48 yuan 24-26), corresponding to the latest closing price The 24-26 PE was 26, 21, and 17x, respectively. Maintain an increase in holdings rating. The company has created an “omnichannel+all category” business model. The online channel uses Douyin as a starting point to create large single products around short video e-commerce volume to empower all channels. Offline channels focus on distribution business and drive steady growth of daily sales products.

The “D+N” omni-channel expansion is smooth, and the high-end cost performance strategy has achieved remarkable results. The company consolidated the “D+N” omni-channel collaborative style of play, focused on distributing 105 Japanese products to create and complete the first round of marketing. The market response was good. The company's gross margin increased by 0.1 pct to 24.5% year-on-year in 24Q3. The 24Q3 company achieved sales, management, R&D, and finance expenses of 19.1%/2.5%/0.3%/0.1% respectively, which remained the same as -0.2 pct/-0.4 pct/-0.1 pct/, respectively, and the overall rate was continuously optimized due to scale effects. Overall, the 24Q3 company achieved a net interest rate of 2.5 pct, an increase of 1.5 pct over the previous year.

Announcement on the signing of the “Investment Intent Agreement”: Anhui One Thing Venture Capital Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, intends to acquire the control or related business and assets of “iSnack” for no more than RMB 0.2 billion; intends to acquire the control or related business and assets of “iYang Food” for no more than RMB 0.06 billion; and intends to acquire the control or related business and assets of “Zhiyang Food” for no more than RMB 0.1 billion. Among them, iSnacks and Ai Discount are all mass-selling snack chains. Currently, the total number of stores is estimated to be around 1,000. Zhiyang Foods specializes in dairy and beverage-related businesses.

Announcement on plans to increase investment in the construction of the snack supply chain and intensive base: it is proposed to increase the investment by no more than RMB 0.2 billion with own or self-funded funds to further improve the construction of the East China Snack Industrial Park (Wuhu), the North District Supply Chain Intensive Base (Tianjin), and the Southwest Supply Chain Intensive Base (Jianyang).

Announcement on plans to increase investment to incubate new sub-brands: it is proposed to invest no more than RMB 0.1 billion in total in subsidiaries through capital increases, loans, etc., to further help the development of new sub-brands such as big names, Coach Dragonfly, Dongfang Yan Jiusheng, and Coco Guo.

They focus on categories such as convenient fast food, healthy and light food, nourishing food, chocolate, etc.

A catalyst for rising stock prices: revenue growth exceeds expectations and the competitive landscape improves

Core hypothetical risks: food safety issues, increased industry competition

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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