Finance Associated Press October 29 news (editor Xiaoxiang) As the US election approaches, more and more 'whales' betting on Trump's victory in the gambling market are coming in smelling the 'blood'...

According to reports from the media, on the most popular crypto prediction platform Polymarket right now, the probability of Trump winning the 2024 US election had reached 66.3% by Monday.

And the further rise in Trump's winning percentage is largely due to another 'Trump whale' who, on that day, invested USD 2 million in USD Coin USDC stablecoin into the 'bet' on Trump's victory.

According to blockchain intelligence company Lookonchain's monitoring, since October 11, the latest mysterious 'Trump whale' with the account name 'zxgngl' has spent as much as USD 7.22 million, buying contracts related to Trump winning the election - if Trump successfully wins, he will be able to gain USD 11.28 million from this.

Due to the continuous increase in Trump's winning percentage over the past two weeks, the unrealized mark-to-market profit of this bet has also reached USD 0.256 million (the current value of the relevant contract has reached nearly USD 7.5 million).

For many investors, upon seeing another 'Trump whale' emerging, their first thought may be whether he is related to the other 'Trump whale' (the biggest trader named Fredi9999, previously confirmed to be French)?

Polymarket once confirmed last week that the four anonymous accounts on its platform - Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro, and Michie - are actually the same person, the trader had bet over USD 20 million on the 'bold bet' of Trump winning the November election. If successful, he will be able to gain a huge fortune of USD 45 million.

However, from the current clues, it seems that "zxgngl" and "Fredi9999" are probably not the same person.

One basis is that "Fredi9999" currently controls four out of the six largest betting accounts on Polymarket for Trump's victory, but all their accounts' funds come from the crypto platform Kraken.

Although "zxgngl" also allocated 99% of the bets to Trump, the account funds are from Binance instead of Kraken.

Industry sources suggest that "zxgngl" is likely controlled by someone confident in Trump's victory. A platform trader named Domer said, "I guess he is a wealthy and loyal Trump believer, willing to place big bets. As the price of Trump's victory contract rises, his confidence grows, and he is in a cycle of confirmation bias—new market information continuously reinforces his confidence."

It's worth mentioning that as the US election approaches, investors' interest in prediction platforms like Polymarket is growing. CoinGecko data shows that in the third quarter, the betting volume of the three major crypto prediction markets increased by over 565.4%, with a total betting amount reaching 3.1 billion US dollars, compared to only 0.4633 billion US dollars in the second quarter. CoinGecko attributes the significant growth in third-quarter data mainly to the US election.

The well-known US brokerage firm Robinhood stated on Monday that the company will introduce contracts allowing customers to bet on the result of the US presidential election. These contracts mark Robinhood's first foray into the prediction market, as a recent federal court ruling in the US effectively legalized election gambling.

Robinhood, the well-known US brokerage firm, announced on Monday that the company will launch contracts that allow customers to bet on the outcome of the US presidential election. These contracts mark Robinhood's first foray into the prediction market, as a recent federal court ruling effectively legalized election gambling.

Editor/rice