核心零部件业务稳定增长，国内外客户形成优势互补。公司核心零部件业务持续稳步增长，海外客户订单达成率较高，我们预计全年有10 亿左右新业务量。客户覆盖福特、克莱斯勒等众多欧美领先整车厂及全球一级零部件供应商，而新拓新能源车企则形成互补，我国汽车零部件行业保持了快速发展态势，市场规模从2016 年的3.46 万亿元增长到2023 年的5.7 万亿元，年均复合增长率为7.4%，新能源车快速发展为公司带来了互补的增量市场。Key points of investment:
The company's revenue performance fell short of our forward-looking expectations. Lake Electric achieved operating income of 7.246 billion yuan in 2024Q1-Q3, up 12% year on year; realized net profit of 0.879 billion yuan, up 6% year on year; realized deducted non-net profit from mother of 0.868 billion yuan, up 11% year on year. In Q3, the company achieved operating income of 2.497 billion yuan, up 6% year on year; realized net profit to mother of 0.276 billion yuan, up 18% year on year; realized deducted non-net profit of 0.275 billion yuan, up 22% year on year. The company's performance was mainly affected by the appreciation of RMB against the US dollar, etc. In terms of profit margins, spending on independent brands was narrowed against the backdrop of sluggish domestic sales. Other losses and rates were controlled, which led to a 0.73 pcts increase in the company's net interest rate over the same period last year.
The ODM OEM business has recovered and the overseas production capacity layout has improved to resist trade frictions. The company's basic market ODM business has improved quarterly since 23Q3. Q1 revenue was +20% year-on-year, and the Q2 boom continued, mainly benefiting from the recovery in demand from the downstream European and American retail side. Since Q3, due to a significant increase in the base in the same period last year, the year-on-year growth rate has been affected to a certain extent, but the overall trend continues. The company's main customers are stable, and new categories are in the process of continuous development. In order to cope with trade risks and accelerate the overseas manufacturing layout in Southeast Asia, we expect overseas production capacity to reach 3 billion, which will basically complete export coverage to the US. During the year, on the one hand, the company actively promoted customer certification and product introduction for new production capacity in Thailand. On the other hand, it further increased investment and construction in Vietnam, purchased land in Vietnam, accelerated plant construction planning and design, and increased the production capacity of Vietnamese factories in order to further develop overseas markets and global production capacity layout. In terms of the independent brand business, domestic sales were slightly sluggish during the year. The company's independent brands were under pressure, but it still insisted on differentiated innovation and created superior categories. The number of 24H1 patents reached a new high. By the end of June '24, the company had obtained 2,299 authorized patents, including 456 invention patents.
The core components business grew steadily, and domestic and foreign customers formed complementary advantages. The company's core parts business continues to grow steadily, and the order fulfillment rate for overseas customers is high. We expect a new business volume of about 1 billion for the whole year. Customers cover many leading European and American automakers, such as Ford and Chrysler, and global first-class parts suppliers, while Xintuo NEV companies complement each other. China's auto parts industry has maintained a rapid development trend. The market size has grown from 3.46 trillion yuan in 2016 to 5.7 trillion yuan in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate of 7.4%. The rapid development of new energy vehicles has brought complementary incremental markets to the company.
Profit forecasting and investment ratings. The company's ODM+ core components are in an upward channel, continuously contributing to revenue performance, and the merger and acquisition of Lihua Technology brought growth, but during the year, they were impacted by RMB exchange fluctuations on exchange gains and losses and the sluggish domestic sales environment. We lowered our 24-26 profit forecast. The company is expected to achieve net profit of 1.19/1.24/1.36 billion yuan (previous value was 1.22/1.38/1.5 billion yuan), up 6.5%/9.2% year-on-year, respectively, corresponding to the current stock price PE 12/11/10, respectively , maintaining the “Overweight” rating.
Risk warning: risk of raw material price fluctuations; risk of exchange rate fluctuations. On July 10, 2024, the company announced a response notice to the Shanghai Stock Exchange's “Information Disclosure Supervision Letter on the 2023 Annual Report of Lake Electric Co., Ltd.”. Here is a special reminder.