报表基本反应市场真实现状，现金流表现依然优秀24Q3 高/中/低档分别实现收入11.4/0.1/0.2 亿元，分别同比-22.7%/-55.3%/+26.5%。高档酒收入承压我们认为与市场普遍反馈的真实动销状况相符，根据名酒观察，其中兼8 在上市2 个月内销售40-50 万箱，表现相对突出（我们估算贡献收入3+亿）。23Q3 省内外分别实现收入9.5/2.2 亿元，分别同比-22.1%/-25.6%，省内外经销商数量分别净+4/+53 家，省内经销商数量增加我们认为与公司“在省内的基础盘市场进行渠道精耕”的战略方向相符。Incident Overview
The company released the third quarter report. 24Q1-3 achieved revenue of 4.36 billion yuan, -1.9% YoY; net profit to mother of 1.31 billion yuan, or -2.8% YoY. 24Q3 achieved revenue of 1.2 billion yuan, -22.0% YoY; net profit to mother 0.36 billion yuan, or -27.7% YoY.
Analytical judgment:
The report basically reflects the actual state of the market. The cash flow performance is still excellent. The 24Q3 high/medium/low levels achieved revenue of 1.14/0.01/0.02 billion yuan, respectively, of -22.7%/-55.3%/+26.5% compared to the same period last year. We think that the pressure on premium wine revenue is consistent with the actual sales situation widely reported by the market. According to the Famous Liquor Watch, Kan8 sold 0.4-0.5 million boxes within 2 months of listing, showing a relatively outstanding performance (we estimate that it contributed more than 300 million dollars to revenue). In 23Q3, the province achieved revenue of 0.95/0.22 billion yuan respectively, or -22.1%/-25.6%, respectively. The number of dealers inside and outside the province was net +4/+53, respectively. We think the increase in the number of dealers in the province is in line with the company's strategic direction of “cultivating channels in the basic market in the province”.
The 24Q3 contract debt was 0.35 billion yuan, +11.9% month-on-month, and sales revenue was 1.43 billion yuan, +1.8% year-on-year. We believe that high-response single products have strong potential in the market and are still sufficiently attractive to the channel, so there is no need to worry too much about the company's repayment situation.
Product structure is under pressure, cost control is reduced
The gross profit margin for 24Q3 was 71.9%, -5.9pct year on year. We believe that on the one hand, the gross margin base for 23Q3 was high, and on the other hand, the decline in product structure+revenue decline in the third quarter dragged down gross profit margin. The 24Q3 sales/management expense ratio was 12.4%/7.1%, respectively, and -3.0/+1.3pct, respectively. We believe that the reduction in sales expenses is in line with the company's strategic direction of improving the company's overall channel operation efficiency and helps release channel potential; the main reason for the increase in management expenses is the decline in revenue scale, and management expenses are -5.0% YoY. Under the premise that the company's cooperation with McKinsey is expensive, it also reflects the strategic focus of improving the company's operational efficiency. Overall, gross margin mainly dragged down the decline in performance. 24Q3 net profit margin was 30.03%, -2.4 pct year on year.
Looking forward to the future and 8 to drive the company's overall restorative growth
The product side, which is also positioned at a price of 200-300 yuan, is one of the important products supporting Kouzijiao's overall product line; the channel side, with the operation center as the main body, further clarifies the responsibilities and division of labor of manufacturers, and will empower the market at various levels such as market research, market diagnosis, market assessment, channel construction, product promotion, and cost control to promote market development (according to the company's performance announcement). We believe that in the past, the company's fundamental contradictions were mainly due to the need to improve product strength and channel organization capabilities to lack operational improvement due to the business model. With the launch of a series of new products, Product Side Kan8 is expected to gradually play a role as a marketing entity, with mass consumption upgrades and sub-high-end consumption downgrades; channel side feedback profits are relatively good (according to famous wine observations). According to Famous Liquor Watch, the company's performance on the market side this year, the provincial capital, stopped falling and growing. Southern Anhui increased too much. Core markets such as Anqing and Wuhu continued to grow, and regions such as Bengbu, Huaibei, and Suzhou maintained a steady and slight upward trend at the mid-range level. We look forward to the company's overall restorative growth in the future, with major single products, mainly Kan8.
Investment advice
According to the adjusted profit forecast for the three quarterly reports, 24-26 operating income was lowered from 6.61/7.24/7.89 billion yuan to 6/6.61/7.2 billion yuan; net profit due to mother was reduced from 1.93/2.14/2.37 billion yuan to 1.75/2.05/2.33 billion yuan; EPS was lowered from 3.22/3.57/3.96 yuan to 2.92/3.42/3.89 yuan, closing price 42.79 on October 28, 2024 The yuan corresponding valuation was 15/13/11 times, respectively. Maintain an “Overweight” rating.
Risk warning
The macroeconomic downturn affects consumer demand; food safety issues; demand falls short of expectations during peak seasons; and increased competition within the industry.