occurrences
The company announced its 2024 three-quarter report. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 2.328 billion yuan (+15.31%), net profit of 0.333 billion yuan (+22.17%), and net profit of non-return to mother of 0.337 billion yuan (+23.05%). With 2024Q3, the company achieved total revenue of 0.574 billion yuan (+15.77%), net profit attributable to mother 0.038 billion yuan (+108.84%), and net profit not attributable to mother 0.035 billion yuan (+71.85%).
Products over 300 yuan maintained a relatively rapid growth rate, 100-300 yuan products grew steadily 1) Products over 300 yuan maintained a relatively rapid growth rate, and products over 100-300 yuan grew steadily. The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 0.472, 1.199, and 0.598 billion yuan, respectively, for the first three quarters of 2024, +43.80%, +14.96%, and -2.54%. 24Q3 revenue was 0.16, 0.309, 0.077 billion yuan, respectively, +42.06%, +14.92%, and -24.33%.
2) Dealer channels are growing steadily, and Internet channels are growing rapidly. The company's distributors, online sales, and direct sales (including group buying) channels had revenue of 2.152, 0.058, and 0.06 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, respectively, +14.05%, +211.20%, and -25.23% compared with the same period last year.
3) In Q3, the nationalization process outside the province accelerated. The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 1.723 billion yuan and 0.547 billion yuan respectively, +13.89% and +15.68%. 24Q3 revenue was 0.374, 0.171 billion yuan, +4.40% and 37.91%, respectively; at the end of 24Q3, the number of distributors within the province and outside the province was 276, 752, respectively, and a net increase of 10 and 13 in 24Q3, a net increase of 4 and 160 from the beginning of the year.
Expense rate decreased, driving Q3 net profit deducted from non-return to mother +72%
1) Steady increase in profitability. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company's gross margin was 64.14%, +0.65pct year on year, mainly due to product structure upgrade; net profit margin was 14.30%, +0.80pct year on year, mainly due to increased gross margin and lower sales expenses ratio (sales expense ratio -0.93 pct to 20.38% year over year).
2) The cost rate decreased, driving Q3 deduction of net profit not attributable to mother +72%. 2024Q3, the company's gross margin was 61.13%, -1.52pct year on year, mainly due to Q3's increased investment in tastings and giveaway promotion, with a net interest rate of 6.63%, +2.95pct year over year, mainly due to a decrease in sales and management expenses and a decrease in non-operating expenses; Q3 sales expenses were +2.23% to 0.138 billion yuan, sales expenses were -3.19 pct to 24.08% year over year, management expenses were +1.71% to 0.075 billion yuan year over year, management expenses ratio year-on-year- 1.81 pct to 13.10%.
Investment advice
We expect the company's net profit for 2024-2026 to be 0.4/0.48/0.573 billion yuan, respectively, with a growth rate of 21.69%/20.00%/19.38%, corresponding to PE 26/21/18X (market value 10.3 billion yuan) on October 25, respectively, maintaining the “gain” rating.
Risk warning
Expansion outside the province falls short of expectations, product structure upgrades fall short of expectations, and risks of excessive market competition.