share_log

高盛用四张图力证:美股将迎“失落的十年”!

goldman sachs uses four charts to prove: US stocks will usher in the "lost decade"!

cls.cn ·  Oct 29 11:02

Goldman Sachs expects that the annualized nominal total return rate of the S&P 500 index in the next ten years will be only 3%; The bank further illustrated the view that the 'golden age of the S&P 500 index is coming to an end' using four charts.

Goldman Sachs predicted earlier this month, $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ The forecast of only 3% annualized nominal total return over the next ten years has sparked intense debate on Wall Street, with many big shots refuting this viewpoint.

Goldman Sachs stated that due to a series of factors such as economic weakness, high market concentration, and soaring US Treasury yields, the S&P 500 index will see a weak performance in the next 10 years. The bank's strategist pointed out that these unfavorable factors may result in the benchmark index having a nominal annualized return rate of only 3% in the next 10 years, lower than the average annualized return rate of 13% for the Standard & Poor's 500 index over the past 10 years.

In a recent report, Goldman Sachs remains firm in its opinion and further illustrated the view that 'the golden age of the S&P 500 index is coming to an end' using four charts.

1. Only a few S&P 500 index component companies maintain sales growth.

Goldman Sachs pointed out that the proportion of companies in the S&P 500 index with high sales growth is very small.

The report stated that the bank analyzed the performance of all component companies since 1985. The results show that only 11% of companies have maintained a sales growth rate of 10% or more in the past 10 years, and only 3% of companies have maintained a sales growth rate of 20% or more in the past 10 years.

Note: The light blue line represents the proportion of companies with sales growth exceeding 10%, and the dark blue represents the proportion of companies with growth exceeding 20%.

The market concentration of the S&P 500 index is at its highest level in a century.

Goldman Sachs pointed out that the market capitalization of the largest stocks in the S&P 500 index is over 700 times the market capitalization of the 75th percentile of stocks in the index, the highest multiple in nearly 100 years, indicating a high level of concentration in the benchmark index.

The bank wrote that, except during economic recessions, an increase in market concentration usually leads to a decrease in the roi of the S&P 500 index over the next 10 years.

The performance of the S&P 500 index has been relatively poor.

Goldman Sachs also pointed out that since the beginning of this year, the total return of the S&P 500 index has lagged behind some other indices and assets, including the Russell 1000 index,$Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$And gold.

Meanwhile, the total roi of the S&P 500 index has been consistently behind the S&P 500 equal weight index (SPW) and the S&P 400 index for many years.

Note: Light blue represents the S&P 500, while dark blue and orange represent the S&P 400 and SPW respectively.
Note: Light blue represents the S&P 500, while dark blue and orange represent the S&P 400 and SPW respectively.

Goldman Sachs strategists advise: "Investors should consider allocating to other indices that we believe are poised for strong future performance. Especially the two indices mentioned above (SPW and S&P 400)."

"The long-term performance of these alternative investments reflects a fact that the strength of the US economy and the profitability and innovation ability of US companies can be demonstrated beyond large cap stocks and market cap-weighted indices," they wrote.

The S&P 500 index has risen by about 23% year-to-date. Companies' performance has been relatively strong so far this quarter. FactSet's data shows that among the companies that have reported earnings, 75% have exceeded expectations, which is in line with the 10-year average level.

However, overall, Goldman Sachs strategists indicated that they are only bullish on the short-term performance of the S&P 500 index, expecting an 8% growth in EPS by the end of 2024, and a 11% growth in EPS next year.

They predict that the benchmark index is expected to reach 6,300 points in the next 12 months, which means an additional 8% increase from the current level.

Editor/rice

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
    Write a comment