Incident: Jiuhua Tourism released its 2024 three-quarter report. The company achieved revenue of 0.569 billion yuan in the first three quarters, up 1.31% year on year; net profit to mother was 0.154 billion yuan, up 1.18% year on year.

The decline in performance in the third quarter was mainly due to weather disturbances, and the boom resumed during the National Day holiday. The company's third-quarter results were mainly affected by the rainy weather in July and the high temperature and typhoon weather in September, which affected passenger flow in scenic spots. Looking at the long-term, the company has maintained a high level of prosperity even after excluding weather disturbances: in January-September of this year, the Jiuhuashan Scenic Area is expected to receive 7.95 million visitors, an increase of 14.2% over the previous year; tourism revenue is 10.4 billion yuan, an increase of 21.0% year on year. Jiuhuashan Scenic Area received 0.274 million people during the 11th holiday season, an increase of 16% over the previous year.

The Lion Peak project continues to advance, and the reception capacity of the scenic area is expected to increase. The company's transportation conversion center function improvement project has been successfully completed and fully put into use, providing 5,207 parking spaces to meet the transfer, consultation and intelligent needs of more than 5,000 people per hour during peak periods. The company has made significant progress in the construction of the passenger ropeway project in the Lion Peak Scenic Area. It has completed project planning, land use pre-examination and site selection, EIA, project approval and ropeway equipment bidding, and is proceeding with woodland and land use approval in an orderly manner. The company accelerated the implementation of the Jiuhua Healthy Vegetarian Restaurant decoration construction in Hefei, and actively prepared project preparations around the enterprise's strategic development plan.

Investment advice: The company is expected to achieve revenue of 7.73/8.52/0.947 billion yuan in 2024-2026 and net profit of 0.182/0.202/ 0.225 billion yuan, corresponding to PE 22.5/20.2/18.1 times PE, maintaining an “increase in holdings” rating.

Risk warning: New project construction falls short of anticipated risks; extreme weather affects passenger flow; industry competition intensifies.