24Q3 单独来看，营收毛利端，公司营收同比下降20.06%，毛利率同比下降3.9pct，因此毛利额同比下降36.54%。费用端，期间费用率同比增加5.49pct（主要系销售费用率同比增加3.99pct，管理费用率同比增加1.02pct），因此归母净利润率同比减少7.11pct，对应最终归母净利润为1321 万元（主要系销售收入下降及销售费用的增长所致）。Key points of investment:
incident. The company disclosed its 2024 three-quarter report. In 2024, Q1-Q3, the company achieved revenue of 1.68 billion yuan (YOY -19.46%) and net profit to mother of 0.083 billion yuan (YOY -59.88%). Looking at 24Q3 alone, the company achieved revenue of 0.607 billion yuan (YOY -20.06%) and net profit of 13.21 million yuan to mother.
Revenue and profitability were under pressure for the first three quarters. Looking at 24Q1-Q3, on the gross profit side, the company's revenue fell 19.46% year on year, and gross margin fell 1.65 pct year over year (judged to be mainly due to rising oil costs), so gross profit decreased 26.65% compared to the same period last year. On the cost side, the cost ratio for the period increased by 4.6 pct year on year (mainly because the sales expense ratio increased by 3.41 pct year on year, and the management expense ratio (including R&D expenses) increased by 1.29 pct year on year), so the net profit margin to mother decreased by 4.96 pct year on year, corresponding to the final net profit to mother of 0.083 billion yuan (YOY -59.88%).
Looking at 24Q3 alone, on the gross profit side, the company's revenue decreased by 20.06% year on year, and gross margin decreased by 3.9 pct year on year, so gross profit decreased by 36.54% year on year. On the expense side, the cost ratio for the period increased by 5.49 pct year on year (mainly due to a year-on-year increase of 3.99 pct in the sales expense ratio and a 1.02 pct year-on-year increase), so the net profit margin to mother decreased by 7.11 pct year on year. The corresponding final net profit to mother was 13.21 million yuan (mainly due to a decrease in sales revenue and an increase in sales expenses).
Revenue from powdered oil products declined sharply, and the coffee business maintained steady growth. Looking at 24Q1-Q3 by product and channel, in the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 0.835 billion yuan (YOY -42.17%) for powdered oil products, 0.193 billion yuan (YOY 7.17%) for coffee products, 62.57 million yuan (YOY -20.49%) for plant-based products, and 0.37 billion yuan (YOY 40.15%) for other products. In addition, the year-on-year sales revenue growth rates of manufacturers/chains/distributors/others were -5.02%/-44.54%/-2.34%/30.56%, respectively.
E-commerce channel revenue is growing rapidly. Looking at 24Q1-Q3 by region, in the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 0.553 billion yuan (YOY -1.77%) in East China, 0.125 billion yuan (YOY -38.09%), Southwest China achieved revenue of 0.117 billion yuan (YOY -52.59%), Central China achieved revenue of 0.163 billion yuan (YOY -68.53%), and North China achieved revenue of 0.142 billion yuan ( YOY 39.05%), e-commerce channels achieved revenue of 42.88 million yuan (YOY 106.29%).
Profit forecasting and valuation. We expect the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 2.354/2.746/3.154 billion yuan, net profit to mother of 0.116/0.184/0.219 billion yuan, respectively, and the corresponding EPS of 0.29/0.46/0.55 yuan/share, respectively. Based on the valuation situation of comparable companies, the company will continue to be given a PE valuation of 20-25 times that of 2025 based on the valuation situation of comparable companies. The corresponding reasonable value range is 9.20-11.50 yuan/share, giving a “neutral” rating.
Risk warning. (1) Food safety risks, (2) increased market competition, and (3) new channels and new market expansion fall short of expectations.
