对于美联储而言，随着通胀逐渐接近其目标，开启宽松周期后的下一步行动很大程度上取决于经济数据，就业市场韧性可能继续成为影响美联储货币政策立场的关键因素。Wharton School of Business finance professor Jeremy Siegel said that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates unchanged at the next week's monetary policy meeting, which will surprise the market. He also mentioned that although investors are almost certain that the Fed will cut interest rates by another 25 basis points in November, this expectation could be overturned if the non-farm payroll report released this Friday is strong.
Finance professor Jeremy Siegel, a top American economist from Wharton School of Business, recently stated that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates unchanged at the next week's monetary policy meeting, which will surprise the market.
Siegel mentioned that although investors are almost certain that the Fed will cut interest rates by another 25 basis points in November, this expectation could be overturned if the non-farm payroll report released this Friday is strong.
For the Federal Reserve, as inflation gradually approaches its target, the next steps after the start of the easing cycle largely depend on economic data. The resilience of the job market may continue to be a key factor influencing the Fed's monetary policy stance.
Economists expect that the non-farm payroll report released this Friday will show an addition of 0.11 million jobs in October. Following the remarkable increase of 0.254 million jobs in September, the data for October may unexpectedly exceed expectations and potentially further adjust the market's expectations for the magnitude of the Fed's interest rate cuts.
"If the October job market report is strong, many people, many FOMC members will say, maybe we should pause the rate cuts at this particular moment," Siegel said in a media interview.
Due to cooling inflation and signs of weakness in the labor market, Federal Reserve officials announced a significant 50 basis point interest rate cut at the September meeting. Federal Reserve Board member Michelle Bowman was the only dissenting voice at that time.
However, since the exceptionally strong non-farm payroll report in September was released, more and more Federal Reserve officials have been calling for a more "cautious" approach to rate cuts, pointing out the resilience of the job market and strong economic growth.
Sigl expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates three to four times in this round of easing cycle. However, he noted that in the long term, interest rates may remain high. He added that the US stocks seem "strong", and the economy remains resilient.
On Wednesday this week, the US Department of Commerce will release the preliminary reading of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the third quarter of this year. The latest forecasts from Wall Street indicate that the US GDP for the third quarter is expected to rebound to around 3%.
The Federal Reserve will hold a policy meeting on November 6-7. Currently, the market is nearly certain that the central bank will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at that time. According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders currently estimate a 98.4% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in November, a 1.6% chance of no rate cut, and a 0% chance of a 50 basis point cut.
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