高阶CIS 出货增长带动规模效应显现。思特威2024Q3 营业收入同比显著增长，环比小幅增长，系50M 旗舰手机主摄、广角、长焦CIS 出货量大幅上升，同时公司凭借迭代产品在安防领域销售显著增长。思特威2024Q3 毛利率环比进一步上升，我们认为系：1）高阶CIS 出货量增长带动规模效应；2）高毛利率的高阶CIS收入占比提升。思特威2024Q3 归母净利润环比小幅下滑，系Q3 有2000 万公允价值变动损失、约1500 万投资损失、约3500 万资产减值损失。公司2024Q3 扣非归母净利润1.52 亿元，QoQ+14%，实际环比增速超过营业收入环比增速。Starway's 2024 results for the first three quarters are in the upper range of the guideline median. The company's significant increase in 50M CIS shipments led to a month-on-month increase in gross margin. Domestic CIS is promoting replacement in parallel in the high, middle, and lower level fields. Maintain a buy rating.
Key points to support ratings
Starway's 2024 results for the first three quarters are in the upper range of the guideline median. Starway's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 4.208 billion yuan, YoY +137%; gross profit margin 22.0%. YOY+3.7pcts; net profit to mother was 0.273 billion yuan, reversing losses year over year. Starway 2024Q3 revenue was 1.751 billion yuan, QoQ +8%, YoY +150%; gross profit margin 23.1%, QoQ +2.1pcts; YoY +2.9pcts; net profit to mother 0.123 billion yuan, QoQ -9%, YoY +14182%.
The growth in high-end CIS shipments has led to a scale effect. Starway's 2024Q3 revenue increased significantly year-on-year, with a slight month-on-month increase. This is a sharp increase in shipments of the 50M flagship phone's main camera, wide angle, and telephoto CIS. At the same time, the company's sales in the security field increased significantly with iterative products. Starway's 2024Q3 gross margin increased further month-on-month. We believe that: 1) the increase in high-end CIS shipments led to a scale effect; 2) the share of high-tier CIS revenue with high gross margin increased. Starway's 2024Q3 net profit declined slightly month-on-month. This means that Q3 had a fair value change loss of 20 million, an investment loss of about 15 million, and an asset impairment loss of about 35 million. The company deducted net profit of 0.152 billion yuan and QoQ +14% in 2024Q3. The actual month-on-month growth rate exceeded the month-on-month growth rate of operating income.
Domestic CIS is being replaced in parallel in the fields of high, middle, and lower level CIS. Qunzhi Consulting expects the global CIS market to reach $21.4 billion in 2024, YoY +13%. The CIS smartphone market has shown a recovery trend since 2023H2. Terminal manufacturers introduced high-standard CIS to attract consumers to upgrade and drive a sharp rise in the volume and price of the CIS mobile phone market. According to Semiconductor Industry Watch, citing industry chain information, domestic mobile phone brands such as Huawei and Xiaomi have reached a consensus to gradually reduce or even abandon cooperation with Sony to fully support domestic CIS manufacturers. According to reports from Semiconductor News, South Korea's SanSK Hynix gradually withdrew from the middle and lower CIS market and invested limited resources in the HBM business. We expect this to further provide a low- and middle-tier alternative market for domestic CIS manufacturers.
valuations
Considering that Starway calculated some fair value change losses, investment losses, and asset impairment losses in 2024Q3, we slightly lowered the company's 2024 net profit estimate. At the same time, considering the positive impact of advanced CIS on gross margin, we slightly raised the company's net profit estimates for 2025 and 2026.
Steway's 2024/2025/2026 EPS is expected to be 0.96/2.12/3.30 yuan, respectively. As of the close of October 25, 2024, the total market value of Starway was about 27.1 billion yuan, corresponding to 2024/2025/2026 PE 70.7/31.9/20.5 times, respectively. Maintain a buy rating.
The main risks faced by ratings
Smartphone demand falls short of expectations. The progress of the CIS iteration for higher-end phones fell short of expectations. The automobile price war spread to the CIS. Security recovery has fallen short of expectations. The competitive landscape in the market deteriorated.
