高盛利率策略主管William Marshall表示，本周可能再次发生这种情况，在一些资产负债表约束可能加剧的情况下，解决方案需要“大量的流动性中介”。他在一份报告中表示：“这些变化可能会导致SOFR在进入11月时再次跃升，与以往季度中期月末的常态相比，SOFR有明显上行的风险。”Goldman Sachs stated that the US money market would face an increasingly common month-end tradition this week, as overnight loan rates will rise sharply with Wall Street banks absorbing a large number of new US Treasury issuances.
According to the Securities Times app, Goldman Sachs stated that the US money market would face an increasingly common month-end tradition this week, as overnight loan rates will rise sharply with Wall Street banks absorbing a large number of new US Treasury issuances.
As banks strengthen their capital holdings to meet regulatory requirements, the record $531 billion in newly issued US Treasuries appearing on Thursday will draw a large amount of cash from banks, potentially reducing the funds banks can freely lend through overnight repurchase agreements. Monthly US Treasury issuances have led to a considerable and predictable surge in the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), a surge that occurred at the end of September and June, continuing a series of such spikes seen in month-end settlements since November of last year.
William Marshall, head of interest rate strategy at Goldman Sachs, stated that this situation may occur again this week, possibly exacerbating the constraints of some balance sheets, with a need for "a significant amount of liquidity intermediaries" as a solution. He stated in a report: "These changes could lead to another jump in SOFR by entering November, with a clear upward risk in SOFR compared to the norm of mid-quarter month-ends, as seen in a series of such spikes since last November."
Although the recent month-end rise in SOFR has been brief, causing almost no significant impact aside from a temporary increase in the cost of overnight loans, concerns have been raised about whether the liquidity of the American financial system is sufficient as the Federal Reserve continues to withdraw cash from the market through quantitative tightening.
The Federal Reserve has taken steps to alleviate potential pressures in the financing market, such as slowing down the pace of quantitative tightening. Dallas Fed President Logan stated last week that the surge in SOFR at month-end did not trigger serious liquidity concerns.
However, JPMorgan strategists Teresa Ho and Pankaj Vohra stated that the surge in SOFR is becoming increasingly hard to ignore, as it seems to be growing more entrenched. They said: "The rise in SOFR is becoming more widespread, and over time, its magnitude and duration will only increase, making it difficult to consider these spikes as just temporary anomalies."
