三大主业有序推进，营业收入维持增长趋势。根据公司公告，公司2024 年前三季度实现营收1.82 亿元（yoy+7.01%），单Q3 实现营收0.64 亿元（yoy-7.82%）。我们分析认为：1）报告期内公司持续扩大ADDA、电源管理芯片及微系统及组件三大主业产品的技术领先优势，未来有望持续受益于国内星座建设加速及特种需求恢复实现快速增长；2）考虑到公司作为特种芯片核心供应商，研发节奏不断加快，伴随产品矩阵进一步丰富，叠加后续多领域需求加速释放，产品有序交付，公司营收有望实现快速增长。Incidents:
The company announced its results report for the third quarter of 2024. According to the company announcement, the company achieved revenue of 0.182 billion yuan (yoy +7.01%) and net profit to mother of 0.014 billion yuan (yoy -63.79%) in the first three quarters of 2024. In the 2024 single Q3, revenue was 0.064 billion yuan (yoy +8.74%), and net profit to mother was 0.009 billion yuan (yoy +37.80%). The performance was in line with market expectations.
Comment:
The three main businesses are progressing in an orderly manner, and revenue continues to grow. According to the company announcement, the company achieved revenue of 0.182 billion yuan (yoy +7.01%) in the first three quarters of 2024 and 0.064 billion yuan (yoy -7.82%) in a single Q3. According to our analysis: 1) The company continued to expand its technological leadership in the three main business products of ADDA, power management chips, and microsystems and components during the reporting period, and is expected to continue to benefit from the acceleration of domestic constellation construction and rapid growth in the future; 2) Considering that the company is a core supplier of special chips, the pace of R&D continues to accelerate, along with the further enrichment of the product matrix, the accelerated release of demand in various fields, and the orderly delivery of products, the company's revenue is expected to grow rapidly.
The cost side remains high, affecting short-term profitability. According to the company's announcement, the company's gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 84.11%, a decrease of 5.58 pcts compared to the same period last year; the company's net profit margin for the first three quarters of 2024 decreased 15.50 pcts to 7.93% compared to the same period last year. According to our analysis, 1) The decrease in gross margin was mainly due to changes in product structure; 2) The reduction in net profit margin was mainly due to cost side pressure. The cost ratio was 66.07% in the first three quarters of 2024, an increase of 9.87pcts compared to 56.20% in the same period last year. Mainly management expenses and R&D expenses remained high. Among them, the management expenses rate and R&D expenses rate for the first three quarters of 2024 were 16.98%/51.86%, respectively. Considering the company's current R&D expenses, the cost side is expected to improve in the later stages as the products under development are finalized and mass-produced, the product structure continues to be optimized, and cost reduction and efficiency measures are promoted, and the company's overall profitability is expected to increase steadily.
A high level of inventory is expected to drive performance growth with product delivery. According to the company announcement, as of the end of Q3 2024, the company's inventory was 0.123 billion yuan, which remained high. Our analysis believes that: 1) the phased array radar and satellite industry is in strong demand, and the company is actively preparing production while simultaneously verifying the boom in the industry; 2) with the execution of subsequent orders, downstream demand is being released at an accelerated pace, and inventory deliveries are converted into revenue, which is expected to drive a steady recovery in future performance.
Deeply involved in the field of special high-end chips, the three major logics help long-term growth. 1) As a core supplier of special high-end chips, the company's three major businesses are expected to be released at an accelerated pace with demand for downstream satellites and radars, driving rapid revenue growth; 2) The company has superior product performance, benchmarking the international advanced level and building industry barriers to ensure steady expansion of the existing market share; 3) The company keeps a close eye on the commercial low-orbit satellite market, and has newly developed and iterated on several series of mass-producible products. The future core will benefit from the acceleration of domestic constellation construction.
The 2024-2026E profit forecast was lowered and the “Buy” rating was maintained. Considering that the company's cost-side R&D investment and management expenses remain high, compounded by gross margin fluctuations, we lowered the company's 2024-2026E net profit to 0.074/0.104/0.157 billion yuan (previous value was 0.088/0.122/0.176 billion yuan), and the current stock price corresponding PE is 101/71/48 times, respectively, and selected representative companies related to satellite support, Chengchang Technology (phased array T/R) chip, China Satellite (satellite manufacturing assembly, etc.), China Satellite Communications (satellite manufacturing assembly, etc.) (Operation and terminal support). Comparing the company's average PE value in 2024, the company's PE valuation is lower than the industry average. Considering the company's superior product performance, strong market competitiveness, and the core benefits from accelerated domestic constellation construction, the company's future performance is expected to grow rapidly, so it maintains a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: demand recovery falls short of expectations; market competition increases risks; domestic constellation construction falls short of expectations.
