公司产品结构持续升级，省外市场稳健发展。（1）分产品来看，前三季度，300 元以上价格带产品营收4.7 亿元，同比+43.8%，收入占比20.8%，同比提升4.3pct。100-300 元产品营收12.0 亿元，同比+15.0%，收入占比52.8%，同比提升0.3pct。西北地区核心消费价格带低于发达省份，仍可享受大众价格带产品消费升级红利，公司作为甘肃白酒龙头，近两年百元以上产品结构持续提升,我们判断3 季度年份系列、柔和系列放量，高于公司整体增速。百元以内产品受务工人流影响，季节特征明显，单3 季度收入增速同比降24.3%，我们判断4 季度有望环比提速。（2）分区域来看，1-3Q24 公司省内营收17.2 亿元，同比+13.9%，省外营收5.5 亿元，同比+15.7%，收入占比24.1%，同比基本持平。其中3 季度省外营收增速明显快于省内，省内、省外营收增速分别为+4.4%、+37.9%，我们判断与公司整体经营节奏及不同区域市场基数有关。截至3 季度末，公司经销商数量合计1028 家，其中省外752 家，同比增166 家。近两年，公司坚持深耕西北，其中陕西市场已从前期汇量式增长转为成熟市场，华东区域仍处于前期布局中。Jinhui Liquor announced the results for the 3rd quarter of 2024. 1-3Q24 achieved revenue of 2.33 billion yuan, +15.3% year-on-year, and net profit to mother of 0.33 billion yuan, +22.2% year-on-year. Among them, 3Q24 revenue and net profit to mother were 0.57 billion yuan and 0.04 billion yuan respectively, +15.8% and +108.8%, respectively. The company's product structure continued to be upgraded, and the cost ratio optimization in the 3rd quarter unleashed profit elasticity and maintained a “buy” rating.
Key points to support ratings
Benefiting from the company's active channel regulation in the second quarter, dealers actively paid during the Mid-Autumn Festival season, which led to overall revenue growth. 1-3Q24's revenue was 2.33 billion yuan, +15.3% year over year, of which 3Q24 revenue was 0.57 billion yuan, +15.8% year over year. In the second quarter, the company actively controlled goods during the off-season, raised prices for core products, and rationalized the channel value chain. Benefiting from healthy channel inventory, we judge that the company's orders for the Mid-Autumn Festival peak season in the 3rd quarter are progressing smoothly, and dealers are active in making payments, driving overall revenue growth.
The company's product structure continues to be upgraded, and markets outside the province are developing steadily. (1) By product, in the first three quarters, revenue from products priced above 300 yuan was 0.47 billion yuan, +43.8% year-on-year, accounting for 20.8% of revenue, up 4.3 pcts year-on-year. Product revenue of 100-300 yuan was 1.2 billion yuan, +15.0% year over year, accounting for 52.8% of revenue, up 0.3 pct year on year. The core consumer price band in the northwest region is lower than that of developed provinces, and you can still enjoy the dividends of product consumption upgrades at popular prices. As the leading liquor in Gansu Province, the product structure of more than 100 yuan has continued to improve in the past two years. We judge that the volume of the annual series and soft series in the 3rd quarter was higher than the company's overall growth rate. Products under 100 yuan are affected by the flow of workers. The seasonal characteristics are obvious. The revenue growth rate in the 3rd quarter fell 24.3% year on year. We judge that the fourth quarter is expected to accelerate month-on-month. (2) Looking at the subregion, 1-3Q24's revenue in the province was 1.72 billion yuan, +13.9%, and revenue outside the province was 0.55 billion yuan, +15.7% compared to the same period last year, accounting for 24.1% of revenue, which was basically the same as the previous year. Among them, the revenue growth rate outside the province in the 3rd quarter was significantly faster than within the province. The revenue growth rates within the province and outside the province were +4.4% and +37.9% respectively. Our judgment is related to the company's overall operating pace and market base in different regions. By the end of the third quarter, the total number of the company's dealers was 1,028, including 752 outside the province, an increase of 166 over the previous year. In the past two years, the company has continued to cultivate deeply in the northwest. Among them, the Shaanxi market has changed from early convergence growth to a mature market, and the East China region is still in the early stages.
Expense ratio optimization unleashed profit elasticity, and the company's net interest rate to mother improved markedly in the 3rd quarter. (1) As of the end of the third quarter, the company's contract debt was 0.48 billion yuan, which was basically flat from month to month. 3Q24's sales revenue was 0.61 billion yuan, +12.7% year-on-year, and sales payback was good. (2) In 3Q24, the company's gross margin decreased by 1.5pct to 61.1% year on year. Against the backdrop of increased market competition, the company increased wine tasting and sales concessions, which affected the overall gross margin performance. The company's expense ratio decreased by 4.7 pct year on year during the 3Q24 period. Among them, the sales expense ratio and management expense ratio decreased by 3.2 pct and 1.8 pct to 24.1% and 13.1%, respectively. Cost-side optimization promoted an increase in the company's net interest rate. In 3Q24, the company's net interest rate to mother was 6.6%, an increase of 3.0 pct over the previous year.
valuations
The company is a leading liquor company in Gansu Province, and the internal mechanism is flexible. The consumer price band in the Northwest China market is low, and you can still enjoy the dividends of the popular price band upgrade. The company adheres to a low inventory and healthy marketing strategy, and the core market user engineering work has achieved remarkable results. The company is currently still in the stage of scale expansion, and profit flexibility is expected to gradually be released as cost investment efficiency improves. We maintain our previous profit forecast. We expect EPS for 24-26 to be 0.77, 0.97, and 1.16 yuan/share, respectively, up 19.5%, 25.6%, and 19.5% year-on-year. The corresponding PE is 28.2X, 22.4X, and 18.8X, respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
The main risks faced by ratings
Economic recovery fell short of expectations, market expansion outside the province was blocked, and planning goals were not completed as scheduled.
