A week ago, Molina Healthcare, Inc. (NYSE:MOH) came out with a strong set of quarterly numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. Results were good overall, with revenues beating analyst predictions by 4.3% to hit US$10b. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in at US$5.65, some 2.5% above whatthe analysts had expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Molina Healthcare's eleven analysts is for revenues of US$43.5b in 2025. This would reflect a meaningful 16% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to bounce 23% to US$24.56. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$42.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$24.63 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.
It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at US$370. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Molina Healthcare, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$415 and the most bearish at US$309 per share. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Molina Healthcare's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 12% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 17% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.7% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Molina Healthcare's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Molina Healthcare. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Molina Healthcare going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Molina Healthcare that you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
