Key points of investment

Performance Overview: In line with expectations, 24Q1-3 revenue +1.3%, net profit to mother -1.5%, 24Q1-3 revenue +1.3%, net profit to mother -1.5%. Revenue of 0.98 billion yuan, +1.3% year over year; net profit due to mother 0.17 billion yuan, -1.5% year on year; net profit without return to mother 0.17 billion yuan, +3.6% year over year. The interest fee for 24Q1-3 convertible bonds was about 31.56 million yuan. Excluding interest on convertible bonds, net profit to mother was about 0.193 billion yuan, an increase of about 14% over the same period.

24 Q3 revenue -5.3%, net profit to mother -1.5%. Revenue of 0.32 billion yuan, -5.3% year over year; net profit attributable to mother 0.05 billion yuan, -22% year over year; net profit without return to mother 0.05 billion yuan, -19.1% year over year. Q3 The decline in revenue in a single quarter was mainly due to pressure from traditional Panasonic businesses, etc., and the cross-border import business declined slightly (domestic consumption downgraded, domestic goods rose, and foreign brands showed weak performance); however, the cross-border export business grew steadily.

24Q1-3 expense ratio: gross profit margin 33.97% (+4pct), net profit margin 16.96% (-0.5pct), management expense ratio 5.4% (+0.6pct).

Close cooperation with four major cross-border e-commerce platforms, winning the bid for the Byte TikTok project in October. Large-scale strategic cooperation, the performance is expected to rise to the next level. Alibaba Group: Guangzhou Tianyun Logistics Center, which provides global central warehouse services for import business; Temu: Jiacheng International Port Park, which provides integrated cross-border export services (main line transportation+customization+international charter (packaging)); SHEIN: Sanshui, Foshan and Heshan, Jiangmen, provide intelligent warehousing and quality inspection warehousing and operation services Inspection, proxy operation, customs, domestic main line and intercontinental Services such as air charter flights.

TikTok: A new bid was won in October to provide inbound quality inspection and third-party logistics services (distributed warehousing operations) for Byte's cross-border e-commerce business.

Profit forecasting and valuation

Jiacheng International has set up a national/global network of three-dimensional smart logistics parks at sea, land, and air in important transportation hub cities across the country and the world to improve logistics links to better provide customized integrated logistics services throughout the entire supply chain for manufacturing and cross-border e-commerce customers, and has now achieved close cooperation with all four well-known cross-border e-commerce platforms. Considering the estimated annual expenditure of about 40 million yuan in interest on debt conversion, we expect the company's 24/25/26 revenue to be 1.33/1.446/1.602 billion yuan, an increase of 9%/9%/11%; net profit to mother 0.202/0.252/0.316 billion yuan, an increase of 23%/25%/25%. The price-earnings ratio corresponding to the current market value is 18/14/11X, with both growth and certainty, maintaining a “buy” rating.

Risk warning: Cross-border e-commerce boom falls short of expected risk; project development progress falls short of expected risk