投资建议：公司是国产化学发光龙头，以全自动流水线为核心的全品类扩张支撑未来可持续发展，内生高速增长确定性强，分子业务有望促成第二成长曲线。考虑到短期内DRG执行、IVD集采及医疗行业整顿等因素仍对公司核心业务有负面影响，我们下调公司2024-2026年归母净利润预测至13.24、16.02、19.51 亿元，同比+8.77%/20.98%/21.80%，EPS分别为 2.28/2.76/3.36元，当前股价对应 2024-2026 年 PE 20/16/13 倍，维持“推荐”评级。Event: The company released its report for the third quarter of 2024. From January to September 2024, we achieved revenue of 3.38 billion yuan (+4.24%), net profit to mother of 0.956 billion yuan (+6.13%), deducted non-net profit of 0.93 billion yuan (+6.69%), and operating cash flow of 0.949 billion yuan (-0.23%). 2024Q3 achieved revenue of 1.173 billion yuan (+3.38%), net profit of 0.337 billion yuan (-5.18%), after deducting non-net profit of 0.332 billion yuan (-3.99%).
Due to short-term factors, the Q3 results were slightly lower than previous expectations: the year-on-year growth rate of the company's revenue in the third quarter of 2024 was low. It is expected to be mainly due to continuous adjustments in the company's business structure. At the same time, the core light emitting business is still continuously affected by DRG implementation and industry restructuring. As various provinces within the chemiluminescence mining alliance such as Henan, Guangxi, and Gansu publish documents clarifying the execution time of the previous collection results, and the collection of new projects is expected to begin soon, we expect that in the future, domestic substitution in the chemiluminescence industry will gradually be implemented. The company may fully benefit as a leading domestic manufacturer in the IVD industry, and its market share is expected to increase rapidly.
R&D maintains high investment and continues to build multi-polar competitiveness: the 2024Q3 company's net profit declined slightly year-on-year, mainly due to an increase in the period expense ratio, including: sales expense ratio 16.32% (-0.38pct)/management expense ratio 4.38% (+0.24pct)/R&D expense ratio 15.13% (+0.90pct); in addition, 2024Q3 company's credit impairment losses increased by about 0.01 billion yuan year on year, which also had a negative impact on apparent profit. The company's R&D expenses are still at a high level. It is expected to be mainly used for research and development of new reagent projects and instrument platforms, and to continue to build a deep business to promote comprehensive competitive strength. Recently, the company has intensively obtained medical registration certificates. According to the company's announcement, in July-September 2024, the company obtained “anti-nRNP/Sm antibody IgG test kit (magnetic particle chemiluminescence)”, “anti-cardiolipid antibody test kit (magnetic particle chemiluminescence method)”, “hepatitis B virus surface antigen test kit (magnetic particle chemiluminescence method)”, “human parvovirus B19IgM antibody test kit (magnetic particle chemiluminescence method)”, etc., which further enriches the product menu, which is conducive to improving the company's comprehensive product menu competitiveness.
Investment advice: The company is a domestic chemiluminescence leader. The expansion of all categories with fully automated assembly lines as the core supports future sustainable development. Rapid endogenous growth is certain, and the molecular business is expected to lead to a second growth curve. Considering that factors such as DRG implementation, IVD collection, and medical industry restructuring in the short term still have a negative impact on the company's core business, we lowered the company's 2024-2026 net profit forecast to 1.324, 1.602, and 1.951 billion yuan, +8.77%/20.98%/21.80% compared to the same period. EPS was 2.28/2.76/3.36 yuan, respectively. The current stock price corresponds to 2024-2026 PE 20/16/13 times, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: Risk of drastic price reduction in chemiluminescence reagent collection; risk of installation progress falling short of expectations due to increased domestic competition; risk that development of new products falls short of expectations.
