业绩符合预期，收入确认滞后运价约2 周，公司经营创造超额TCE。2024 年波交所TC7 航线7 月、8 月、9 月TCE 分别为27582、18017、16290 美元/天，分别同比+29.4%、-21.1%和-46.9%。3 季度运价在经历了上半年的强劲表现后，开始明显回落，主要因LR 和MR 高运价吸引了更大的原油轮争抢中东成品油出口的运输需求（8 月VLCC 和苏伊士油轮运输成品油出口量较5 月接近翻了一倍）；失去了中东地区的货盘支撑导致东南亚地区运力持续过剩。考虑到波交所TC7 运价从租约成交到实际承运货物滞后约2 周，公司收入按照完成百分比确认，收入滞后运价约2 周。2024 年3 季度利润反应的是6 月下旬-9 月上旬的运费水平，调整后的2024 年Q3 运价为24063 美金/天，较2 季度业绩期运价环比下滑35.7%，同比2023 年Q3 业绩期运价增长5.1%。按照公司3 季度扣非业绩倒推，参考hifleet 卫星数据，Q3 公司外贸MR 船队TCE 水平约为28000-30000 美元/天，略高于市场平均运价，公司业绩符合预期。Key points of investment:
Incident: The company announced results for the 3rd quarter of 2024. Net profit for the 1st to 3rd quarter was 1.656 billion yuan, up 37.62% year on year, after deducting non-net profit of 1.388 billion yuan, up 16.85% year on year. In the 3rd quarter of 2024, the company's net profit to mother was 0.436 billion yuan, up 20.90% year on year, down 20.69% month on month; deducted non-net profit of 0.36 billion yuan in the single quarter, up 0.41% year on year, down 24.22% month on month, and net profit to mother was in line with expectations.
Actively promote fleet turnover, optimize the fleet structure, and seize the boom cycle. The company disposed of another MR tanker “CSC PROGRESS” in the 3rd quarter. The sale price was 21.56 million US dollars, contributing 0.075 billion yuan in non-recurring profit and loss during the quarter. At that time, all four ships of the “Bill on Disposal of Four MR Ships” passed by the company at the end of 2023 have been delivered. The capacity of the four ships is over 15 years old. Taking into account the company's delivery of 3 new MR capacity and 2 handy tankers in 2023, as well as the “Bill to Build Four 0.05 Million-ton MR Oil Chemical Vessels” and the “Proposal to Build a New 18,000-ton Oil Chemical Vessel” resolution, the company is carrying out a new round of fleet capacity replacement work in an orderly manner to ensure the company's long-term continuous operation.
The performance was in line with expectations, revenue recognition was delayed by about 2 weeks, and the company's operations created excess TCE. The TCEs for the 2024 TC7 route in July, August, and September were 27,582, 18017, and 16,290 US dollars/day, respectively, +29.4%, -21.1%, and -46.9%, respectively. After experiencing strong performance in the first half of the year, freight rates in the third quarter began to decline markedly, mainly because high LR and MR tariffs attracted larger crude oil tankers to compete for transportation demand for Middle Eastern refined oil exports (VLCC and Suez tankers transported refined oil exports in August nearly doubled compared to May); loss of pallet support from the Middle East region led to continued overcapacity in Southeast Asia. Considering that the TC7 freight rate on the Bosnian Stock Exchange was delayed by about 2 weeks from the transaction of the lease to the actual shipment of the goods, the company's revenue was recognized according to the completion percentage, and the revenue lagged behind the freight rate by about 2 weeks. The profit for the 3rd quarter of 2024 reflects the freight rate level from late June to early September. The adjusted 2024 Q3 freight rate was 24063 US dollars/day, down 35.7% month-on-month from the second-quarter earnings period, and up 5.1% from the 2023 Q3 earnings period. According to the inverse deduction of the company's performance for the 3rd quarter, referring to Hifleet satellite data, the TCE level of the Q3 company's foreign trade MR fleet is about 28,000-30,000 US dollars/day, which is slightly higher than the average market rate, and the company's performance is in line with expectations.
Active buybacks and cancellations and controlling shareholders' holdings showed confidence in the company's future development prospects. On October 14, the company announced that its controlling shareholder Changhang Group plans to increase its A-share holdings by no less than 1% of the total share capital and not more than 1.72% of the total share capital. The company repurchased and cancelled 1% of the shares at the beginning of the year, which also reflects the company's many efforts to repay shareholders when dividends are limited.
New ship orders are mainly replacement requirements, and the lengthening of new shipbuilding schedules has led to new orders being placed ahead of schedule. Production capacity for new shipbuilding is tight, and the shipyard platform is already scheduled for 2028. According to Clarkson statistics, currently in-hand orders for refined oil tankers and Afula crude oil tankers account for 16.70% of the capacity. In terms of DWT, finished tankers and Afula crude oil tankers account for 16.40% of old ships. Since the current shipping schedule has reached 2028, the proportion of old ships aged 15 and over by the end of 2027 is actually 28.41%. Considering the aging of the ship and the timing of delivery, the current order is still manageable.
The profit forecast was lowered and the “buy” rating was maintained. In the second half of this year, freight rates fell beyond expectations and the company's capacity was reduced. The 2024-2026 freight rate forecast values were lowered to 34,000, 35,000, and 35500 US dollars/day to 30,400, 28,000, and 28,500 US dollars/day, and the 2024-2026 net profit forecast of 2.144, 2.103, 2.143 billion yuan was lowered to 20.33, 17.44, and 1,795 billion yuan. The current position is close to the replacement cost, and the company's additional capacity will be in place after 2027 to contribute to the company's performance and maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: security incidents, mitigation of geopolitical disturbances, global macroeconomic downturn, etc.
