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国投证券:三季度家电关注度持续提升 白电获明显增配

Guotou Securities: Consumer electronics continued to gain attention in the third quarter, with significant increase in allocation to white goods.

Zhitong Finance ·  Oct 28 16:53

In the third quarter, the export of household appliances continued to be highly prosperous, and since August, various provinces and cities have successively issued detailed subsidies for the 'trade-in old for new' policy for household appliances, driving the improvement of domestic household appliance consumption. The proportion of actively managed equity funds heavily invested in the household appliance sector continued to increase.

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Guotou Securities released a research report stating that in the third quarter, the export of household appliances continued to be highly prosperous, and since August, various provinces and cities have successively issued detailed subsidies for the 'trade-in old for new' policy for household appliances, driving the improvement of domestic household appliance consumption. The proportion of actively managed equity funds heavily invested in the household appliance sector continued to increase, with the fund's heavily weighted household appliance holdings accounting for 5.32% in 2024 Q3, a sequential increase of +0.40pct. The household appliance sector is overallocated by 2.94% in 2024 Q3, a sequential increase of +0.33pct. Looking ahead, the 'trade-in old for new' subsidy policy is expected to continue to boost domestic household appliance consumption, and household appliance exports are expected to remain in a relatively high prosperous state. Leading household appliance companies operate steadily, with high dividend yields, making household appliance stocks highly valuable assets.

The white goods sector in Q3 continued to receive increasing allocations from funds: the market value of white goods in the Q3 heavyweight funds accounted for 3.81% of the total market value of heavyweight funds, a sequential increase of +0.50pct. The number of funds heavily invested in the white goods sector increased by 454 compared to the previous period. Among them, the proportion of fund holdings heavily weighted in Midea Group, Gree Electric Appliances, and Haier Smarthome increased by +0.37pct, +0.29pct, and -0.17pct respectively. Within all A-share targets, white goods were overallocated by 2.48%, a sequential increase of +0.40pct.

The proportion of fund holdings heavily weighted in the white goods sector has increased somewhat, mainly due to the high prosperous state of white goods exports in Q3. According to industrial sources, the YoY shipment volume of air conditioners and refrigerators in Q3 increased by 38.2% and 14.0% respectively, while the YoY shipment volume of washing machines in July-August increased by 15.7%. Moreover, the 'trade-in old for new' subsidy policy has had a good stimulating effect on white goods consumption. According to AVC data, in September, the online sales revenue of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines increased by YoY+81.6%, +45.0%, and +27.4% respectively; offline sales revenue increased by YoY+71.3%, +46.7%, and +38.5% respectively.

The market's attention on the kitchen appliances sector increased in Q3: the market value of heavily invested kitchen appliances in Q3 accounted for 0.03% of the total market value of heavily weighted funds, a sequential increase of +0.02pct. The popularity of the kitchen appliances sector increased sequentially, mainly due to the gradual relaxation of real estate policies in various regions, and kitchen appliance consumption is expected to benefit from the 'trade-in old for new' subsidy policy. Among them, the proportion of heavily weighted holdings in Vatti Corporation and Oppe Science increased by +0.02pct and +0.01pct sequentially.

In Q3, funds reduced their allocation to the black appliances and clean small appliances sectors: the market value of heavily weighted black appliances in Q3 accounted for 0.40% of the total market value of heavily weighted funds, a sequential decrease of -0.14pct. Among them, the proportion of heavily weighted holdings in Hisense Visual Technology and TCL Corporation decreased by -0.08pct and -0.05pct sequentially. The proportion of heavily weighted clean small appliances in Q3 decreased sequentially by -0.05pct, mainly due to market concerns over the overseas sales prosperity and operational efficiency of Beijing Roborock Technology, with the proportion of heavily weighted holdings decreasing by -0.06pct sequentially.

Investment recommendation: Top white goods companies operate steadily, benefiting from the 'trade-in old for new' subsidy policy and expected to continue their good export prospects, maintaining high dividend yields. Recommended stocks include Midea Group (000333.SZ), Gree Electric Appliances (000651.SZ), Haier Smarthome (600690.SH), Changhong Meiling (000521.SZ), and Hisense Ha (000921.SZ). Overall, consumption in Europe and America is showing signs of recovery, with China's household appliances enjoying favorable export prospects to Latin America and Southeast Asia. TCL Corporation (002668.SZ), Beijing Roborock Technology (688169.SH), and Guangdong Xinbao Electrical Appliances Holdings (002705.SZ) and other export chains are worth paying attention to. 2024 is a big year for global sports events, with global television demand expected to rebound, so it is advisable to pay attention to the leading player in black appliances, Hisense Visual Technology (600060.SH).

Risk Warning: Public funds only disclose the top ten heavyweights in their holdings, which may deviate from the actual comprehensive position statistics.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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