The official agenda of the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank listed issues such as low growth, high debt, and escalating geopolitical tensions, but financial leaders are largely concerned about the possibility of Donald Trump returning to power in the November US election.

Trump's recent performance in polls has almost erased Harris's early lead, becoming the topic of almost every conversation among finance officials, central bank governors, and members of social groups attending the meeting in Washington last week.

There is concern that Trump may disrupt the global financial system by significantly increasing tariffs, issuing trillions of additional dollars in debt, and reversing efforts to combat climate change in favor of supporting more fossil fuel energy production.

Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said: "Everyone seems to be worried about the high uncertainty of who the next US president will be and what policies the new president will adopt."

Another anonymous central bank governor expressed this concern more directly: "It feels like Trump might win."

Trump's vow to impose a universal 10% tariff on imports from all countries and other measures will impact global supply chains, likely leading to retaliatory actions and increased costs. German Finance Minister Christian Lindner said last Friday that a US-EU trade war will only bring losers.

Trump is also attempting to attract American voters by offering various tax breaks, from extending the 2017 individual tax cuts to exempting tips, overtime pay, and social security retirement benefits from taxation. Budget analysts say this could add at least $7.5 trillion to US debt over ten years.

In contrast, Harris's victory is seen as a continuation of Biden's approach over the past four years to re-engage in multilateral cooperation on climate, corporate taxes, debt relief, and development bank reform. Her plan may also increase debt, but far less than Trump's plan.

Harris supports a "targeted" approach and criticizes Trump's broad tariff plan, which would levy a $4000 consumption tax on American households.

"Trump trades" are back, from stocks to bitcoin to the Mexican peso, these assets are all betting on a Trump victory.

The dollar has seen its largest monthly gain in two and a half years, with the dollar index rising 3.6% so far this month. Standard Chartered Bank analyst Steve Englander attributes 60% of the dollar's rise to Trump's increased chances in the gambling market.

Brazilian Central Bank Governor Campos Neto stated that in this dollar-sensitive economy, betting on a Trump victory has already affected long-term interest rate futures pricing for inflation impact, adding that both Trump and Harris' fiscal plans have inflation components.

The IMF announced that the global fight against inflation has achieved significant victories in the absence of significant unemployment. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva urges policymakers to begin reducing the massive debts resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic, or else face a future of slow growth that will make people increasingly unhappy.

The Fed's significant 50 basis point rate cut was supposed to mark a "blonde moment" for emerging market growth, but the larger U.S. deficit during a potential Trump presidency has made some worry that the party may soon end.

Turkish Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek said during a meeting break activity, "A larger deficit means increasing debt, and increasing debt means rising long-term rates, which could also mean a strong dollar. High long-term rates and a strong dollar in the U.S. are not favorable for emerging markets."

Concerns about the possibility of trade wars leading to inflation easing stagnation are widespread. South African Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago said, "If other countries also respond to one country's tariff hikes by imposing tariffs, this will lead to price increases, and the global central banks' inflation-fighting process may become challenging."

IMF Steering Committee Chairman and Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan emphasized the history of cooperation with both the US Republican and Democratic governments, including the Trump administration. He said, "We just need to ensure this dialogue continues." This view was echoed by other participants at the meeting.