2024年3季度公募基金配置化工行业比例降低至5%，同比下滑1pct，环比下滑0.8pct，整体处于历史相对中位的水平。从公募基金配置化工板块的风格来看，From a fundamental perspective, most sectors in the chemical industry are still in a cyclical bottom state, and the subsequent recovery of the industry will require improvements in supply and demand.
According to the report released by Sinolink, from a fundamental perspective, most sectors in the chemical industry are still in a cyclical bottom state. The subsequent recovery of the industry will depend on improvements in supply and demand, so it is advisable to focus on high-quality leading companies with strong risk resistance. For sectors with relatively good current business conditions, while remaining cautious about risks, it is also recommended to pay attention to leading companies with relatively complete overall layouts and companies with significant future incremental growth. From the current investment style perspective, it is recommended to focus on growth and thematic directions. High-quality growth stocks with performance support may experience a double boost in profits and valuations.
Public fund allocation in the chemical industry has decreased slightly, but the concentration of positions in leading enterprises has significantly increased.
In the third quarter of 2024, the proportion of public funds allocated to the chemical industry decreased to 5%, down 1% year-on-year and 0.8% quarter-on-quarter, overall at a historical median level. In terms of the investment style of public funds in the chemical sector, the total market value of the top ten heavily-weighted stocks in public funds has substantially increased, rising from 44% in the second quarter of 2024 to 50.4% in the third quarter of 2024. Among them, the holding market values of polyurethane leader Wanhua Chemical, tire leader Sailun Group, and new energy material sector capchem technology in the chemical sector have significantly increased. The increase in the proportion from the second quarter to the third quarter of this year is 3.47%, 1.73%, and 3.09% respectively.
The focus in the third quarter of this year is mainly on the polyurethane, tire, and new energy chemical materials sectors.
In terms of the market value of individual stock holdings: New zhoubang (300037.SZ), Wanhua Chemical (600309.SH), Sailun Group (601058.SH), weihai guangwei composites (300699.SZ), sunresin new materials (300487.SZ); The top five reduced holdings are Tongkun Group (601233.SH), Shandong hualu-hengsheng chemical (600426.SH), Guangzhou tinci materials technology (002709.SZ), Huheng Biology (688639.SH), and Beijing easpring material technology (300073.SZ). In terms of the number of holdings: the top five companies with increased holdings are Wanhua Chemical, New zhoubang, weihai guangwei composites, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (600028.SH), and sunresin new materials.
Regarding new heavy positions and exiting heavy positions: in terms of new heavy positions, the top five companies in terms of the market value of heavy positions as of the third quarter of 2023 are Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong (000301.SZ), cnsig inner mongolia chemical industry (600328.SH), Shenzhen dynanonic (300769.SZ), and Guangdong dowstone technology (300409.SZ), among others. As for the companies exiting heavy positions, the top five companies that exited heavy positions in the third quarter of 2023 in terms of market value ranking are Do-fluoride new materials (002407.SZ), yueyang xingchang petro-chemical (000819.SZ), Yonghe shares (605020.SH), Hengyi Petrochemical (000703.SZ), and Longhua New Materials (301149.SZ).
High-quality leading companies with operating resilience are still preferred, while the attention to oversold sectors with elasticity has significantly increased as the market recovers.
In terms of the performance of segmented sectors and symbols, it is more obvious to increase positions in the polyurethane, tire, and new energy chemical materials sectors. In the polyurethane sector, the main symbols with increased positions are Wanhua Chemical Group. On one hand, the company has shown strong performance resilience at the bottom of the industry cycle, and on the other hand, it has also benefited to some extent from the expected improvement in industry demand brought about by the introduction of relevant real estate policies; the tire sector has experienced strong demand support during the third quarter, and leading companies have full order books. At the same time, the negative impact of the previous two quarters due to the rise in marine transportation costs has gradually eased with the fall in shipping costs; the new energy-related sectors had a longer and greater adjustment period earlier, therefore, under the background of overall market recovery, such oversold sectors are also gaining attention.
Risk warning
Domestic and foreign demand decline; drastic fluctuations in crude oil prices; industrial layout affected by changes in trade policies; product price decline.
