Event: Oriental Wealth released its 2024 three-quarter report. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 7.304 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.96%, and realized net profit to mother of 6.042 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.69%. 2024Q3 achieved revenue/net profit to mother of 2.359/1.986 billion yuan in a single quarter, respectively, -5.2%/-5.5% year-on-year.

Fund business revenue declined due to market conditions. By business, the company's fund business/ brokerage business/ credit business accounted for 30.7%/49.7%/20.6% of revenue, respectively. The company's fund business revenue for the first three quarters of 24 years was -27% year-on-year to 2.24 billion yuan, while Q3 achieved revenue of 0.72 billion yuan in a single quarter, or -6.7% quarter-on-quarter.

The total share of equities and hybrid emerging funds in the first three quarters of 24 was 148.7 billion, down 33% from the previous year. Weak equity funds dragged down the company's fund business performance. The subsequent recovery in market sentiment is expected to bring about a gradual improvement in fund sales business. At the same time, attention is being paid to the implementation of the third phase of the public fund rate reform.

Self-management is still the main support. Securities transactions on agents have increased month-on-month, and attention is being paid to the flexibility of the company's performance due to subsequent market recovery. 1) Brokerage: In the first three quarters of 24, the company achieved net income from handling fees and commissions (mainly securities brokerage business) of 3.55 billion yuan, yoy -5%; in Q3, the company achieved net revenue of 1.16 billion yuan in processing fees and commissions, -4% over the quarter. At the end of the reporting period, company agents traded securities +64% month-on-month to 112.847 billion yuan, or +64% month-on-month. Since September 24, a number of favorable policies have been actively implemented. The company is expected to benefit from improved market sentiment and liquidity, and subsequent performance increases can be expected. 2) Credit: In the first three quarters of 24, the company achieved net interest income of 1.506 billion yuan, yoy -10%; in Q3, the company achieved net interest income of 0.479 billion yuan, or -5% quarter-on-quarter. 3) Self-operated: Benefiting from the increase in revenue from the self-operated fixed income business, the company's self-operated business revenue in the first three quarters of 2024 was +50% year-on-year to 2.401 billion yuan. In Q3, the company achieved net interest income of 0.768 billion yuan in a single quarter, -6.7% quarter-on-quarter. At the end of the reporting period, the company's transactional financial assets increased by 24% to 84.5 billion yuan compared to the end of 23 years.

Investment advice: The company's net profit in 2024 is expected to be 8.33 billion yuan, yoy +2%, corresponding EPS is 0.53 yuan, and the current stock price corresponding to 24E is 43xPE, maintaining a “buy” rating.

Risk warning: policy risk, market fluctuation risk, fund sales falling short of expectations.