生物科技行业尤其受惠于减息。该行业与利率上升呈强烈的反向相关性，这意味着当利率上升时，生物科技行业往往跑输大市，但当利率下降时则表现出色。现时利率呈下降趋势，该行业有望进一步增长。目前其正在经历创新科技的蓬勃发展、医疗保健产品需求上升以及活跃的并购活动。Schroder Investment believes that after months of market volatility, the future prospects of the stock market are still relatively constructive. Despite high valuations, strong earnings support, and recent rate cuts should provide further support.
According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Schroder Investment stated in a post that after months of market volatility, the future prospects of the stock market are still relatively constructive. Despite high valuations, strong earnings support, and recent rate cuts should provide further support. However, geopolitical risks remain an unpredictable variable. The bank stated that now is a favorable period, with long-term trends - an aging and affluent society and favorable changes in the interest rate cycle - suggesting a positive development period for the biotechnology industry. Similarly, the real estate industry is also turning from headwinds to potential tailwinds. This industry is still undervalued but active.MergerThe activity shows that the industry holds huge value waiting to be unlocked.
Schroder pointed out that the recent 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve created a more favorable environment for the stock market. Although the rate cut was larger than expected, it reflects easing inflation and a cooling labor market. Historically, periods of low inflation (within the 1-3% range) coupled with declining interest rates are favorable for the stock market. Despite high market valuations, many investors remain optimistic about the prospects of stocks.
The biotechnology industry particularly benefits from the rate cut. The industry exhibits a strong inverse correlation with rising interest rates, which means that when interest rates rise, the biotechnology industry often underperforms the broader market, but performs well when interest rates decline. With interest rates currently trending downward, the industry is poised for further growth. It is currently experiencing vibrant developments in innovative technology, rising demand for healthcare products, and active M&A activity.
Moreover, this rate cut marks a turning point for the real estate industry after a challenging period in 2022. The industry has experienced its largest decline since the global financial crisis. However, urbanization continues to drive long-term demand for real estate, including data centers, nursing homes, and residential properties. Despite recent lifestyle disruptions due to the COVID-19 pandemic in recent years, the trend of people moving to urban areas with concentrated expertise and recreational facilities remains strong.
The bank points out that in 2024, Artificial Intelligence (AI) technology has been dominating the investment market. A few technology companies, especially those closely related to the development of artificial intelligence, are driving major returns in the market. In fact, over half of the S&P 500 index's returns in the first half of the year came from just five companies, all directly linked to artificial intelligence. Schroder has a positive outlook on the future of artificial intelligence.
In addition, Schroder mentioned that the upcoming USA presidential election is another important factor that may impact the financial markets. When Trump was elected in 2016, the market experienced a significant short-term increase, especially in industries expected to benefit from his protectionist policies, known as the "Trump effect". However, if he is elected again, the market is unlikely to experience the same effect. Regardless of the election result, it is highly likely that monetary policy will continue to play a dominant role, as the policy flexibility of the two candidates is limited.
