Source of the original article: Cryptographic Ah Yao

All prediction websites and top models have shown that Bitcoin [BTC] -backed candidate Donald Trump is more likely to win the upcoming US presidential election.

According to Bianco Research analyst Jim Bianco's latest review, prediction websites such as Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIT all predict Trump's chances of winning at least 60%.

Potential impact on BTC

Although some platforms like Polymarket have recently been criticized for alleged manipulation, other reliable models lean towards Trump. Bianco pointed out that top election models such as the Silver Bulletin and two other popular models also showed that Trump's chances of winning were as high as 50%.

“Silver isn't the only company with an election model. Silver Bulletin, FiveThirtyEight, The Economist magazine. They all think Trump's upward trend will be over 50%.”

Speculators in the BTC market consider this higher-than-expected phenomenon to be bullish.

Notably, BTC has seen explosive growth over the past few weeks as Trump's odds soared and surpassed 60% on Polymarket. It propelled BTC to almost $0.07 million. Commenting on this correlation, Bianco called it an “election game,”

“This is yet another election farce, although this relationship may be 'breaking' in recent days.”

Market Positioning

This optimistic expectation of Trump's victory may have had the most obvious impact on the BTC options market. Last week, options traders expected a 20% chance of BTC reaching $0.08 million by the end of November.

Market sentiment had not changed as of press time. According to Deribit data, the number of open positions for call options (betting on price increases) due on November 8 is almost double that of put options (price falls).

Additionally, the bearish/bullish ratio (PCR) that tracks the options market sentiment is 0.55.

For context, if the ratio is above 1, the number of put options is higher than the number of call options, which is a bearish sentiment. On the other hand, if the ratio is below 1, it means that call options dominate, underscoring the bullish sentiment.

Nevertheless, the PCR reading of 0.55 depicts extremely bullish sentiment in the options market, probably because speculators think Trump is likely to win.

However, given Harris' growing pro-cryptocurrency stance, BTC options traders believe the asset could hit an all-time high (ATH) no matter who wins the US election.

Meanwhile, at press time, BTC was worth $67,000, about 9% from its high of $73,700.